A wave C from the April high of $6,632.92 seems to have ended around $5,475, the 61.8% retracement on the uptrend from the January 2016 low of $4,318 to the June 2018 high of $7,348.
Even though this wave looks much shorter than the preceding wave A, a projection analysis reveals that it is roughly 0.618 times the length of the wave A, the completion of the wave C looks convincing if the uptrend from $4,318 is considered intact.
To put it another way, the fall from $7,348 could simply be a correction against the uptrend which may have resumed from the Sept.3 low of $5,518.
Given that the former support at $5,833 triggered a wave B, which lasted about eight months, there is good reason to believe that copper could stay above $5,475 for a few months, which is a much stronger support.
Theoretically, the metal could rise to $6,632.92, the peak of the wave B. For a quarterly outlook, this target looks too far away. A realistic target will be $6,191.
Strategically, this target of $6,191 will be valid when copper breaks the immediate resistance zone of $5,821-$5,833. A further slide from the current level may be limited to $5,635.
* Charts are not available in reports received in email box through "Alert". To get charts, use the news code of TECH/C to retrieve the original reports.
*** Wang Tao is a Reuters market analyst for commodities and energy technicals. The views expressed are his own.