The amount of gas in inventory was as much as 33% below the five-year average in March 2019. But with production close to a record high, analysts said stockpiles should end the summer injection season at near normal levels of around 3.7 tcf on October 31.
Front-month gas futures for November delivery on the New York Mercantile Exchange eased 0.4 cents to settle at $2.214 per million British thermal units, their lowest close since Aug. 27 for a second day in a row.
For the week, the front-month declined almost 6%, putting it down for a fourth week in a row for the first time since early August. Recent price swings in gas futures pushed at-the-money implied volatility, a determinant of option premiums, to 47.5% on Thursday, its highest level since January. Over the past year, implied volatility has swung wildly, hitting a record high of 117.5% in November and a record low of 18.6% in April.
Refinitiv projected gas demand in the lower 48 US states, including exports, would rise from 83.9 billion cubic feet per day (bcfd) this week to 86.0 bcfd next week and 86.5 bcfd in two weeks as cooler weather boosts heating demand faster than lingering power generator air-conditioning demand declines.
Gas flows to LNG export plants eased to 6.0 bcfd on Thursday from 6.1 bcfd on Wednesday, according to Refinitiv data. That compares with an average of 6.1 bcfd last week and an all-time daily high of 6.8 bcfd on August 25.
The Refinitiv projected LNG exports could jump to a record 6.9 bcfd in late October if Dominion Energy Inc's Cove Point plant in Maryland returns to service.
Pipeline flows to Mexico held at 5.6 bcfd for a second day in a row on Thursday, according to Refinitiv data. That compares with an average of 5.6 last week and an all-time daily high of 5.9 bcfd on September 18.
Gas production in the lower 48 states eased to 92.8 bcfd on Thursday from 93.0 bcfd on Wednesday, according to Refinitiv data. That compares with an average of 93.1 bcfd last week and an all-time daily high of 93.8 bcfd on September 29.
In the spot market, next-day power for Friday at the Ercot North hub in Texas fell to its lowest since May 2017.