Australian, New Zealand dollars steady

Updated 25 Oct, 2019

The Aussie was idling at $0.6854, having shied away from tough resistance at the September top of $0.6895. Support comes in at $0.6834 and $0.6810.

The kiwi dollar was steady at $0.6418, having again failed to clear its September high of $0.6450. Near-term support lies at $0.6386.

A dearth of domestic data added to the somnolent tone with the next major Australian release being third-quarter consumer prices on October 30.

Futures are pricing in a slim 16% chance of a quarter-point cut at the RBA's next meeting on November 5, rising to around 50% in December and 82% for February next year.

That outlook is helping keep bond yields not far from record lows. Three-year bond yields stand at 0.74% compared to 1.83% at the start of this year.

The three-year bond future added 1.5 ticks on Thursday to stand at 99.275, while the 10-year contract gained 1 tick to 98.9050. There was a rare event in the government's regular debt auctions when a sale of Treasury Notes drew bids for less than the amount offered, a miss that last happened back in 2002.

The auction of A$1 billion ($684.50 million) of short-term notes attracted bids worth just A$936 million, resulting in a bid-to-cover ratio of 0.9263.

A ratio under 1 is exceptionally rare for Australian government debt, which carries the top triple-A credit rating and usually draws more than enough demand.

Justin Smirk, a senior economist at Westpac, expects a pick up in headline consumer price inflation to an annual 1.8% pace but for the key core measure to slow a tick to 1.3%.

That would mean core inflation had been running below the floor of the Reserve Bank of Australia's (RBA) 2-3% target band for almost four years, a major reason markets are betting on at least one more rate cut.

"Competitive disinflationary pressure in consumer goods is limiting the pass through of the weaker Aussie, though it is having some impact," said Smirk.

Copyright Reuters, 2019

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