HSBC's new interim boss deserves credit for staying positive. Even as he abandoned an important return target for 2020, Noel Quinn pointed to businesses that "held up well in a challenging environment". And though he talked about accelerating remodelling plans, he and Chairman Mark Tucker will have to be sure they are sufficiently bold.
Quinn took over in August and is now keen to lose the "interim" moniker. Lousy third-quarter figures unveiled on Monday can largely be pinned on his predecessor, John Flint. Adjusted pre-tax profit fell 12 percent from a year earlier, to $5.3 billion, hurt by plunging revenue from trading stocks, bonds and the like.
A 9.5 percent return on tangible equity in the first nine months made next year's 11 percent aim unreachable. An updated strategy is due to be released early next year. HSBC is already considering offloading its French retail bank, and Quinn, the former commercial bank chief, said he wants to "rebalance capital away from low-return businesses", such as those in the United States and Europe. He also may axe the equity sales and trading division, Britain's Sunday Times has reported.
The risk is that the next shakeup proves as underwhelming as previous efforts. HSBC's equities business is small, at about 1.6 percent of group revenue, while the French retail unit represents just 0.4 percent of risk-weighted assets, using UBS estimates.
Meanwhile, moving capital around the world is harder under post-crisis regulatory changes designed to safeguard the financial system. A radical option would be for Quinn to start carving up HSBC, for example by listing a stake in the UK and US businesses and using the proceeds to grow in more profitable Asia.
That is unlikely, however, as he seems wedded to the heritage of a globally-integrated trade bank. Another possibility would be to slash even more jobs and close more units in Europe and North America.
Those businesses account for almost half of HSBC's $865 billion in risk-weighted assets, but just 7 percent of pre-tax profit in the latest three-month stretch. The familiar rebuttal is that meaningful cuts there would hinder HSBC's ability to properly bank international businesses. A woeful performance at least gives Quinn plausible justification to sacrifice sacred cows.
HSBC on October 28 abandoned a 2020 return on tangible equity target of more than 11 percent as the UK-based bank reported a 12 percent decline in adjusted pre-tax profit and said the "outlook for revenue growth is softer than we anticipated." Revenue in the third quarter fell 2 percent from a year earlier, to $13.3 billion, adjusted for currency fluctuations, movements in the paper value of financial instruments and one-off expenses.
Adjusted pre-tax profit was $5.3 billion. HSBC's return on average tangible equity in the first nine months of 2019 was 9.5 percent, compared with 10.1 percent in the same period in 2018. Interim Chief Executive Noel Quinn said he was accelerating plans to restructure businesses in Europe and the United States and moving capital to higher-growth areas elsewhere.