The Met Office has forecast a slightly above normal precipitation over central and extreme northern parts of the country for November 2019, while normal over Punjab, Balochistan and Sindh.
"As a whole normal to slightly above normal precipitation over central and extreme northern parts of the country is expected," it said, adding that one to two spells of light to moderate rainfall are expected during the month. It said that westerly wind system will approach northern parts and may cause snowfall over mountains.
Gilgit-Baltistan and Kashmir are expected to receive slightly above normal rainfall while Khyber Pakhtunkhwa normal over its upper parts and slightly above normal over southern parts of the province. "Third and early days of fourth weeks are predicted to be wetter as compared to rest of the days of the month," the Met added.
Dense smog is expected in the first and second weeks, which will weaken afterwards, it said, adding that "shallow to dense fog is expected over plain areas of Punjab in first, second week and fourth week". Slightly above normal snowfall over northern region will enhance snow accumulation over the glaciers. Above normal temperature is likely in plains of Sindh and Balochistan in November, while normal in central and upper parts of the country.
"The large-scale atmospheric circulation patterns like El-Nino Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) influence over precipitation and temperature anomalies over Pakistan. Currently ENSO is in neutral phase and having no significant impact over rainfall in the region during November. The negative pressure anomaly pattern over North Atlantic Ocean is likely to prevail up to mid-November and is expected to turn to positive in second half which may cause a few rainfall spells. The convection and mean sea level pressure patterns over Indian Ocean may not favor any significant rainfall in the country, however, after mid-November these patterns may turn into favourable for rainfall events in Pakistan," the Met said.
Copyright Business Recorder, 2019