Currently, the talks hinge centrally on conditions, particularly the question of a reduction in violence. Unfortunately, the facts on the ground appear to point in the opposite direction. Although attacks in Kabul and the major cities have abated of late, fighting in the rural areas has intensified. In 2019, the Taliban carried out 8,204 attacks, compared to 6,974 in 2018. The trajectory of the intensification or abatement of the attacks seems to follow the ups and downs in the talks process. Fighting while talking appears therefore to have been mastered as an effective tactic by the Taliban. As Shah Mehmood Qureshi too has said after his meeting with Zalmay Khalilzad, a lot depends on the reduction of the level of violence, which has by now acquired the status of the main challenge and prerequisite. The fear of course remains that the longer the negotiations are prolonged, the greater the risk of the talks' derailment. A single major attack on US forces could bring the whole process to a grinding halt. The crash of a US military plane in Afghanistan in recent days, claimed by the Taliban as having been shot down by them, has heightened such concerns. Although Zalmay Khalilzad received assurances from both Shah Mehmood Qureshi and General Bajwa that Pakistan would continue to back the peace efforts, there still lies many a slip between the cup and the lip. And even if some agreement is hammered out between the US and the Taliban that leads to the withdrawal of US forces from Washington's longest running war abroad, the post-withdrawal scenario is still clouded in uncertainty, not the least because the intra-Afghan dialogue has yet to get off the ground. Shah Mehmood Qureshi's anxiety about striking a peace deal while the iron is hot and spoilers have not yet managed to play their part is matched by the pressure of the upcoming US presidential elections. Naturally, President Donald Trump would like to enter the electoral fray having fulfilled his promise to end US entanglement in the Afghan quagmire, but whether fortune will smile on him in this regard still remains to be seen.
Copyright Business Recorder, 2020