Finally, the deal. The double TT, Ie, Trump and Taliban have both agreed and signed it. The rest of the world is keeping their fingers crossed - not only that they sign it but also that the deal does not become too much to deal with. 19 years of live and unending horror story of war, violence, killing, pain, conflict, unrest, destruction of millions of people and trillions of dollars may finally end and cease to devastate. Learning from history, when the Soviet invasion of Afghanistan ended, all stakeholders now need to prepare and do all they can to prevent history from repeating itself of a bigger post-deal disaster.
In the long run no war is ever productive and no war is ever predictable. Wars are like heady conquering feats where defeating an enemy becomes an end that ends up destroying the very purpose for which it was undertaken. The Afghan war's stated purpose was to weed out terrorists and terrorism post 9/11 attacks and it ended up spreading terrorism and producing new terrorists organizations like ISIS (Daesh). The world is a much more unsafe place than pre-Afghanistan war and the developed economies are facing huge downward trends with the cost of war, conflict, trade barriers, etc, making globalization look more like a backhanded protectionism than an open free market.
In this context the agreement to agree to a deal is also a remarkable step. Whether this step proves a stumbling block or a stepping stone to more peace integration only time can tell. At the moment the broad outline for the pre-deal conditions were:
1. A violence free week- A seven-day "reduction in violence" period started last Friday afternoon Washington time, midnight Saturday Afghanistan time. The initial agreement to reduce violence is aimed at building confidence ahead of signing a broader peace agreement. As the reduction in violence was more or less held, US and Taliban negotiators signed the broader agreement on February 29th, starting a phased withdrawal of US troops in exchange for Taliban guarantees that Afghanistan will not be used as a base for terrorist attacks against the West.
2. Withdrawal of troops- The deal is still dealing and will keep on dealing with what and when US troops will leave Afghanistan. The US has about 13,000 troops and feels that 4,000 can be withdrawn. Taliban have and will insist on quick withdrawal of all troops.
3. The deal after the deal- The most crucial aspect will be the post-withdrawal scenario in Afghanistan. The aspect of which intra-Afghan groups enter this dialogue and which ones sabotage them is what will finally decide the success of the deal.
Reaching this level of negotiation is a move forward but by no means unprecedented. In September 2019, President Trump invited Taliban leaders to the Camp David to finalize a deal but called off the meeting after a Taliban attack killed a US service member. The process is thus fraught with raw sensitivity that can trigger off political wounds on both sides that are hard to heal by just the announcement of a deal or even signing off a deal.
The complexity of this deal makes forecasts highly risky and difficult. However the only way to prepare for the unprepared is to prepare for all eventualities even if they are unlikely. That is why the pre-deal homework must have included:
1. Identifying all stakeholders who are influencers in this process- This includes US and its allies, Taliban, other groups operating in Afghanistan, Afghan Government and opposition groups, Pakistan and any other international agencies and institutions that are or can affect or can be an affectee of this deal.
2. A Strategic Response Matrix needs to be developed- Each influencer has to be categorized as facilitator, blocker or spoiler with reasons for this categorization. For example Abdullah Abdullah is claiming to form a parallel government in Afghanistan or other non-Taliban factions who are being sponsored by other countries.
3. Scenarios Probability Grid needs to be created- Scenarios of if the deal works out or not, if it goes through, the post-deal repercussions, If US withdraws and all types of Intra Afghan Conflict scenarios need to be crafted to prepare for each eventuality.
4. Contingency Plans to be drawn- For each scenario a contingency plan on how to preempt the problems of this scenario and the response to it should be detailed to create some method out of the madness.
This may seem very academic but without this exercise it may be catastrophic. To cut through the chaos any number of contingencies have to be catered for. If these do not happen there is nothing to lose but if they do happen and there is some first aid available then damage control may be easier. The Afghan government has always resisted this dialogue process and there is an urgent need to engage them. However, the government itself first needs to strengthen itself as the new elections have further divided the political house. While Ashraf Ghani has declared victory he is not been accepted either by his rival Abdullah Abdullah or by the Taliban who are willing to talk to him not as a PM but as a representative of another group. This means political instability is encouraging the spoilers to enter and destroy the peace initiative.
For US it seems imperative that they get out of Afghanistan as President Trump is nearing re-election and this peace deal may be the trump card for winning it. For Taliban, as written in the NYT op ed by Sirajjudin Haqqani, the offer to make a peace deal and present a more moderate and mending face to the world, this is an opportunity to assert legitimate power in Afghanistan. For Pakistan peace in Afghanistan is key and thus their role remains important during and post-deal. Their role of facilitating the dialogue between US and Taliban should now change to facilitation of a peace settlement between Taliban and other factions in Taliban, be it bilateral or multilateral.
The spoilers, and there are many, will try to paint Pakistan as a meddler, instigator and exporter of mischief and unrest. It is upto Pakistan to diplomatically, politically and through various front- and back-door channels ensure that they build upon their new perceptual positioning of peace partners in the world. The dual challenge will remain of countering Indian and other forces propaganda and simultaneously sustain and strengthen this image to a level where the people of Afghanistan and the world community at large trust and support their contribution to regional peace.
(The can be reached at andleeb.abbas1@gmail.com)