Shamail Ahmad Khawaja belongs to the Pakistan Administrative Service. He is a recipient of the most coveted President of Pakistan Gold Medal for his best all round performance at the Civil Services Academy, Chevening Scholarship for postgraduate studies at the Kings College London and London School of Economics.

Khawaja has a diverse experience in public sector management over a period of three decades, while serving on several important field, staff and policy making assignments in the federal and provincial governments as divisional commissioner; deputy secretary to chief minister, Punjab; director general of attached departments; chairman, Punjab Information Technology Board (PITB), additional secretary and secretary to the government of Punjab in various departments, additional chief secretary, Punjab; and finally, retiring as the federal secretary, Water Resources Division, government of Pakistan.

He was conferred with the “Leadership Excellence Award” by chief minister Punjab in recognition of his meritorious services and for promoting IT/e-government practices in the provincial Excise and Taxation department. Since his retirement, he has been a regular guest speaker at different academic and civil services training institutions.

Given the breadth of his experience and seminal work in the formulation of National Water Policy (2018), BR Research sat down with Khawaja in Lahore recently to discuss criticism of the policy, resource management in domestic context, water governance, storage and conservation, and other related issues. Below are the edited excerpts.

BR Research: National Water Policy is possibly the first major development in the water sector since the 1991 Water Accords. Yet in terms of impact, its role remains dubious. Do you believe NWP was a result of political expediency in an election year?

Shamail Ahmad Khawaja: When I joined the federal ministry for water resources, there was no policy or framework around regulation of water, which is the lifeline of our nation. My team and I had the chance to achieve landmark success in the form of developing first national water policy. The policy was developed in 2017-18, with across the board consensus at a time of heightened political uncertainty and turmoil in the country.

Recall that during the last political regime, chief ministers and governments in all four provinces belonged to distinct political parties, which made the buy-in from all provincial stakeholders all the more remarkable. In that sense, the credit is also shared across political spectrum given the spectre of water shortage faced by the country at that time.

BRR: Do you think the sense of urgency with respect to water shortage has been lost over the last one year?

SK: There is a shift in priorities given the formidable challenges that the government is facing on the economic front. Personally, I believe that it is important to show that the urgency on water governance remains paramount. During the last months of my service, I stressed upon the importance of acting sooner rather than later in my conversations with members of Council of Common Interest and the federal cabinet.

BRR: NWP has a long list of policy objectives. Which of these do you believe is its most salient achievement?

SK: We had two institutional mechanisms build into the policy. First, we believe that the hydropower sector demands ownership at the highest level. This has finally become a reality thanks to establishment of National Water Council headed by the Prime Minister. Second, two regions from where all of Pakistan’s freshwater resources emanate – Azad Jammu & Kashmir, and Gilgit Baltistan – have been given equitable representation in NWC, which is an apex national body. This is a first in the history of this country’s political governance.

BRR: Coming to the subject of storage. Given increasing volatility in weather patterns, and higher rate of glacial melt due to climate change, should the country not focus on increasing its water storage capacity?

SK:  Of course, the country needs more dams. Existing storage capacity currently stands at 30-33 days. By building Mohmand and Bhasha, it will go up to 55 days. But more importantly, at 13.7 MAF, our current storage is just 10 percent of our total water availability. While Bhasha and Mohmand will add another 7MAF of live storage, another 3 MAF will have been lost by then due to siltation.

Consider that 80 percent of Pakistan’s total surface water resources are available within 100 days of monsoon season, thus they must be captured for usage during remainder of the year.

BRR: But should the country prioritize dam construction over reforms in the agriculture sector viz. governance of irrigation system?

SK: The fact of the matter is that the $15billion required for these mega infrastructure projects will probably not be available within the original completion timeline – year 2027. Not only will they face cost overruns but will also not pay any dividends until completion.

Having said that, had these projects not been initiated right now, given the 1 percent siltation rate, we may soon lose half of the current storage of Tarbela and Mangla, by the time new dams are eventually completed. Moreover, the spill over effects of Bhasha should not be discounted. Once commissioned, it will add another 30 years’ life to Tarbela.

In my view, this not an either-or choice. Reforms in the governance of water sector can be taken head on concurrently. Of course, if the mismanagement of resources is not addressed, eventually adding more capacity is akin to pumping more blood into the body without closing the wound.

BRR: But globally the trend is shifting towards removal of dams, even as Pakistan moves toward mega dam construction?

SK: There is no one size fit all solution. Policies need to be tailor made by giving due consideration to economic and climatic peculiarities of each country. Hypothetically, if half of Pakistan’s rural population migrates to urban centres – meaning that agriculture would no longer be the primary source of employment - then mega dams may no longer be relevant.

Consider that out of $24billion exports, over 75 percent are derived directly from agri-commodities and cotton-based textile. Agriculture still remains the backbone of the economy, and for so long as it continues to do so; Pakistan will need additional storage capacity and reservoirs to feed the demand for irrigation.

Moreover, I am of the view that the primacy of agriculture sector in Pakistan’s economy will persist. The country has the world’s largest contiguous system of irrigation, which can serve as our comparative advantage.

BRR: Some may argue that it is also the largest ‘mismanaged’ irrigation system in the world. Now that a policy framework is in place, do you believe the biggest roadblock to course correction has been removed?

SK: The mismanagement and inequitable distribution of irrigation water is precisely why rural to urban migration is looming unchecked. Substantive work has been carried in developing policy framework such as a report by Friends of Democratic Pakistan; Water Economy running dry; the Kotri barrage studies; finally culminating into NWP in 2018. The challenge lies in ensuring consistent application of these policies, which unfortunately remains the missing piece of the puzzle.

BRR: To what extent can initiatives to develop water accounting systems help improve conservation?

SK: Water accounting is a very serious issue. The telemetry project, funded by WB’s Water Sector Capacity Building and Advisory Services Project (WCAP), found that just 50 percent of the water released in the irrigation system reaches farmgate. The National Water Policy has set out a target of lining of water courses and minors and improve on-farm water management. These steps shall help reduce system losses down by 33 percent by 2030. It will increase water availability for the irrigation system by at least 17-18 MAF.

Consider that the proposed storage capacity of Bhasha dam is just 6.4MAF, or just one-third of resources that can be saved by ramping up conservation efforts. This is an example of how wide impact targets can be achieved with lower resource deployment.

BRR: But these irrigation system ‘losses’ of fifty percent must be consumed elsewhere. Is most of the lost resource diverted toward other farming regions, or does the data point toward its consumption in urban, industrial or commercial sectors?

SK: The water demand in the urban segments is very limited, and concentrated in urban regions of Karachi, Lahore, Faisalabad, Gujranwala and Sialkot. The limited number of industries – such as mills in rural areas – may consume few hundred cusecs of water – a miniscule amount in the context of several million-acre feet lost in canal command system due to poor infrastructure.

The bulk of the system losses, thus, are consumed within farming sector, and are accounted by theft near canal head. The problems faced by the tail-enders as a result are very severe, and contribute not only to the rising inequity, but also poor agricultural yields. Eventually, the tail-enders become bankrupt, forced to sell off their lands. This also has the unintended consequence of increasing pressure on cities due to rural to urban migration.

Unfortunately, the hue and cry is mostly raised around inadequate availability of water, with little attention paid to mis-governance and lack of accessibility.

BRR: If 90 percent of agrarian land ownership is with 20-25 percent of zamindars; and over 90 percent of total water resources are consumed by agricultural sector, does it not follow that most of the water consumed (and by extension, wasted due to inefficient practices) is on lands owned by very few people. Why has resource abundance for few not resulted in higher productivity?

SK: Because water does not play an over riding role in increasing agricultural productivity. Instead, it is dependent on factors such as preference for low value crops, and yield. Yield, in turn, is driven by variables such as availability of certified seeds, fertilizer application, mechanization, and extension services. Consider that because of fraudulent practices, certified seeds are not even available to the most influential agriculturalists in Punjab, let alone small farmers.