The prime minister said we must fight the coronavirus with wisdom and once again ruled out the possibility of a complete lockdown of the whole country to protect those at the very bottom of the food chain. But then, when praising China as "the only country which has so far defeated the disease" he also accepted that it was done by "enforcing a complete lockdown in Wuhan." While whether or not China has already "defeated" the disease is open to question, since one-month data is not nearly enough for a definitive answer, the PM was spot-on that their lockdown was successful only because they had the resources to deliver food at peoples' doorsteps and there was no threat of widespread hunger and starvation.
It's already pretty clear that Pakistan's economy does not have the kind of depth to survive a prolonged lockdown. In fact, it might need yet more donor-funded bailouts to offset just the downturn triggered by the virus if it continues for long. That is why the Pakistani government's stimulus package for the next few weeks and months will have to be very finely tuned indeed. So far, much of the PM's focus has revolved around daily wagers, who are sure to face starvation as this crisis intensifies. And now the State Bank of Pakistan (SBP) has decided, the PM explained, to give concessional loans to industries that decide against layoffs and continue paying their employees.
Protecting industry workers and daily wagers is important, no doubt, and the government has done the right thing by keeping them at the forefront of its response initiatives. But the stimulus package will have to be more elaborate and less vague to send the right message across the market. What, for example, is to be done about the informal sector, which is still the biggest employer in the economy? And all we've heard about Small and Medium Enterprises (SMEs) is that a 'strategy should be devised with the government' for their workers. Considering the size, employee base and economic importance of this sector, perhaps it would have been wiser to push it up the priority list a notch. Then there are the self-employed, whose ranks bulged even further as the economy contracted over the last couple of fiscal years. Contrary to popular belief, this segment does not just consist of roadside fruit sellers and garbage pickers, but makes for a big part of the workforce going all the way to estate agents and brokers. So far, a lot of these sectors are still wondering what is to become of them as the government rallies around industry workers and industrial labour. While it is understandable that we are in unchartered waters and countries across the world are facing similar problems, there is still the need to communicate effectively what has already been allocated across sectors.
The matter of the lockdown needs to be communicated properly as well. So far Prime Minister Imran Khan does not feel the need for it, as he has said repeatedly, but he has also said he'll enforce it if the situation gets worse. But how bad does it have to get before it is worse enough for such lockdown? He must be very clear about how many new cases or deaths could force him to change his mind. There should be fair warning, or the entire exercise could be self-defeating. The decision hasn't yet come quite clearly because of people who depend on daily earning. But they would suffer the most if the announcement comes suddenly and without warning. Mishandling this thing can create an India-like situation in Pakistan as well. New Delhi's sudden enforcement of complete countrywide shutdown left daily wagers out of work and without food and stranded. And without transport, they couldn't leave cities for their homes in the villages. Moreover, Tablighi Jamaat's centre in Delhi, which has been sealed off by the hauthorities on coronavirus concerns, is said to have been seeking help from police and the city administration to deal with the people streaming into it but the lockdown had made things extremely difficult.
Hopefully, there will be more clarity in the coming days as the government assesses the impact of its initiatives. Meanwhile, both deaths and new cases are still on the rise in the country as well as the rest of the world. Therefore, the need for targeted and timely action has never been greater.