It is time to reimagine the world and imagine a new normal. It is not the same world today as I am writing this piece and would not remain the same world as we move ahead. We can either be'deniers', followers or leaders. Does not matter how big, small, powerful or weak you may be. The new normal is all set to define new leaders, new followers and leave behind a new set of deniers. I normally avoid using dramatic statements to make my point. However, the caption is chosen carefully. It may sound dramatic, disruptive, radical, but it is not. I will try and explain the background and why world generally but Pakistan specifically needs to bring focus on both health (which has happened, sadly through force majeure) and the power of digital. Focus on health will ensure that workforce stays healthy; focus on digital will ensure economy becomes sustainable and be put back on track. It is about time that interventions are institutionalizedin a sustainable way to change the way we behave, we work, we do business, we socialize, we interact, we communicate, we trade. It is also time to think and act like leaders and not carry on with a distant follower mindset.
As we approach another period of end of lockdown, questions are being asked, what next? We are close to completing our third week of lock down and the number of cases are not showing any respite. As a matter of fact, they are constantly increasing and pace of increase which is also a factor of increased number of tests being conducted has also gone up. Pakistan recorded the highest number of cases on Monday, 6th April 2020- highest number in the third week of lock down. So while one can argue, that if lock down had not happened, the pace of increase would have been much higher, but the fact remains the spread has not decreased. While lockdowns may delay the spread and slow down the rate of increase of the virus, it will not eradicate the virus till the world finds a cure. From all indications, we are several months to possibly a year plus away from finding that cure. Can we afford to carry on in the present mode or it is time to rethink, reimagine and take actions?
No matter how I look at it, the choices available are ugly. If governments ease the lockdown, the spread clearly will accelerate and if they don't, the hunger and desperation is spreading much faster. This dilemma takes us back four weeks when wefirst started debating lockdowns. How long can we afford it? My contention is that the entire hysteria of lockdown was based on emotion rather than a defined set of objectives and a clear exit strategy. Similarly, if we open the lockdown without a strategy, we will set ourselves up for disaster.
On the one hand lockdowns can slow down the spread to prepare our healthcare system to better manage the in-flux of patients, on the other hand lockdowns must also enable the world and Pakistan to prepare for dealing with economy and business. While I do see focus on former (health), but I have not seen similar focus on preparing for economy in the 'new normal'.
In summary, neither can we afford a rapid spread of the virus across the country nor can we afford to indefinitely shut down our economy and daily lives. It is imperative for governments, business leaders and think tanks to simultaneously and rapidly tackle both problems.
Conventional wisdom only works in normal times. Unprecedented times call for unconventional and disruptive wisdom. Conventional wisdom and approaches will fail us if we continue on that path. These are not normal times and no normal solution will work - I would argue there is none available. It calls for new approaches, new ways of dealing with situation, being courageous, bold and out of box.
I believe every solution in the New Normal, has to have "Social Distancing" as the focal point. Every possible measure must answer two questions:
1. Will it enable us to get back to a functioning world in terms of health and economy?
2. Does it follow the principles of social distancing?
Only when the solution answers yes to both questions, it should be deemed workable.
I believe two distinct 'worlds' need to emerge - this time, via intervention by governments and regulators and not by market forces alone. The physical and digital/virtual world. While in the past it was happening out of convenience, reach, scale and speed, in the "New Normal" it needs to happen out of necessity. Just like water, food, shelter is necessity, during and post Covid, so is social distancing. Think about it. Lockdown is an intervention by Governments of the world and it is to maintain social distancing. I am arguing, we need to make it a way of life and would go to the extent of saying, that till world finds a way out of dealing with this, this intervention in the short to mid-term is the only way out. That said, I also believe something great may emerge out of this for the whole world and for Pakistan.
We need to rethink how we use the real estate in our offices. We can no longer have the same number of people crammed in, in the space that we have got for it will defeat the "social distancing rule". How can we do that? I am proposing to have a plan to ensure 50% (as a guideline) of all economic activities takes place in the virtual/digital world. Just like suddenly work from home has become a reality and businesses are finding ways to get adjusted to it, now it needs to be done via policy intervention and for ensuring stronger compliance to principles of social distancing. Of course I am not saying it solves the problem of virus, but it surely allows people and businesses to carry on with their economic activities in a new way and mitigating the risk in a significant manner.
I urge the Government in Pakistan, its regulators (and around the globe for that matter) to come up with laws, regulations, compliance requirement along the following lines. Can't emphasize enough that every solution must conform the principles of social distancing. This requires an industry by industry review by the government to come up with a minimum set of guidelines to ensure social distancing. For example, 50% of all white collar jobs can be moved to the digital world. In the manufacturing sector, can we increase the number of shifts to reduce the number of people in the factory? On average, I argue that 50% of the work can move into the digital space. This would mean development and deployment of platforms, tools, new solutions on war footings. Good news is that technology today has reached a point, where all this can be done much faster than majority of people think, provided there is willingness and compulsion to adhere.
Physical World: It is a given that this world is a reality and will remain a reality.
1. Every premises, factory, workplace, business need to ensure all entry, exit and its workplace designs conforms to instructions to be issued around social distancing.
2. Informal sector to be provided with immediate platforms, enablement and connectivity to be able to connect with their consumers online without the need for physical visit. We need to move consumers and informal sector interactions as much as possible, and must enable them to move to online ways of doing business. Tough ask, but a truly transformative way to provide them with gainful employment.
3. All formal sector of economy where physical presence is needed, need to find all jobs which can be done remotely and need to move out of premises.
4. Shopping malls and bazaars, which are source of high footfalls and are in formal category, need to move out to the virtual world for example, encourage and facilitate e-commerce in Pakistan in a big way
5. Consumers and individual businesses must be encouraged to avoid physical interactions and use online platforms for communication, trading, work on their business mode and ensure only the fulfilment part is handled via physical interaction.
6. Every business has to have a definite opening and closing time (except for those which needs shifts or 24x7 operations) for better regulation of physical traffic.
Digital World:
1. Just like work for home, calling people and delivering at home, finding new ways of fulfilment due to the force of lockdown is becoming a reality, doing business virtually needs to be made a new reality as a way of life and not as a result of lock down. This needs to happen not just by market forces alone, but by intervention of Government, trade bodies and every stake holder.
2. Regulations around security, compliance, optimization, ethics all need to be formulated with war speed to be put into force.
3. New wave of innovation must be encouraged and new economic models to be developed for economy come back to its feet as fast as possible.
4. The bailout packages being announced by the Government must be utilized for industries to invest in building technology infrastructure to be ready, rather than the typical brick and mortar approach. Teach and enable them on how to fish, instead of feeding them with fish.
5. To create internet bandwidth, spectrum must be auctioned or even be made available without any charge through some formula to operators to cater for increased broadband traffic. Earning money from any auction months or years down the road, will be lot less compared to the economic loss due to continued lockdown for health hazard.
6. The government can truly transform and bring about paradigm shift in its service delivery from "People to Government" to "Government to people.
The above is not an exhaustive list. However, it provides for a framework to deliberate and work with. It is not a time for our Government to be using typical method of slow moving, bureaucratic decision making process. It is time to make decisions, make mistakes, fail and fail faster, learn and correct. The only thing which is not on our side is "Time". Lockdowns cannot continue since they will not eradicate the virus. We can deliberate this as much as we like, this remains a fact for some time to come. Social distancing is going to become a way of life for the foreseeable future. Has to be cornerstone of all solutions designs, policy and decision making. Must be abundantly clear by now that business as usual is not an option any more. Conventional wisdom will fail us. Health Emergency will lift our dilapidated health infrastructure and would enable us to fight with the virus better. Digital emergency will transform the country, leapfrog us to match the very best in the world, has the potential for us to be placed in leadership quadrant, will ensure Social Distancing to help bring economy back on track. It is time for truly innovating thinking and unorthodox ways of making decision and execution. I don't see any other way out of this quagmire.
(The writer is a well-known Corporate executive turned entrepreneur and is currently the Director and CEO of Jaffer Business Systems, and President of Touchpoint (Pvt) Limited). The views expressed in this article are not necessarily those of the newspaper.