As the country gets ravaged by the Virus Wars, with the situation getting worse day by day, let us start once again with a prayer that Allah SWT alleviates the hardship of our beloved nation soon.

Honestly, writing a column when the sum total of everything you have read before is a big fat zero, when the entire world has gone topsy-turvy battling a virus ravaging the global population, and when the eventual impact on the economy is uncertain, is really not a walk in the park. So kindly appreciate the effort here, as you sit locked down in your homes with nothing much to do except read newspapers end to end, including boring op-ed columns - a useful break from helping the better half in the kitchen.

To clarify the impact on the economy, the unanimous opinion of all pundits is that the global as well as every national economy will be ravaged as the Virus wars continue; the only uncertainty is the quantum of devastation. My bet, it would be near to absolute.

Essentially, things will probably never get back to normal for the economy; there will most likely be a new normal, or perhaps an old wine in a new bottle.

The service sector is expected to face the brunt of the global lockdown, initially at least; it is likely that a large chunk of business relating to tourism, hotels, restaurants, schools, travels of any kind, and perhaps even retail may well go under. The combined impact on unemployment in the urban areas and tourist destinations may well be horrific.

And let's not even talk about the financial sector; that will only exacerbate the panic. Perhaps the Ostrich has the right strategy, burying your head in the sand works: at least you don't see the train rushing towards you in the tunnel with no light at the end of it!

Globalization, and free markets, have probably been stuck a fatal blow. Beyond necessities, it is highly unlikely that international trade will recover in the near future.

Another nightmare in the offing, a direct offspring of the end of globalization, is overseas Pakistanis coming home jobless. A global pandemic resulting in a global recession and loss of jobs worldwide will flame Xenophobia. Anti-immigrant movements will rise, and governments are more likely to repatriate foreign workers rather than let them compete for fewer and fewer jobs - but there will be no jobs back home either!

Whilst every country is dreaming up stimulus packages, there are no guarantees that they will work, especially when the consumer, the backbone of the modern economy, is flying to safety and practising extreme austerity.

Definitely, attempts to revive the construction sector in a developing country appear to be a step in the right direction, essentially the driver for a lot of related businesses. However, the construction industry needs buyers to thrive upon, and there are generally very few buyers in a deep recession (especially not in the kind never seen before in living memory). And for how long will businesses continue to invest in development when there are virtually no buyers?

The cash stimulus, giving money directly to the very poor, was needed. But how long can the Government continue with the hand outs? And what about the struggling middle class, most of which will probably not get paid a salary starting next month.

The point is that more and more, everyone is looking towards the Governments to come up with a solution - nobody believes that capitalists and their theories have a solution this time around.

Ironically, Hollywood, a product of free market capitalism, perhaps indirectly imagined the fall from grace of its creator: The War of the Worlds. Karl Marx got it wrong, or at least we will never know whether or not he was on the money - a bug imploded capitalism.

The diehard supporters of Capitalism probably got their knickers twisted by the above assertion; but let's face it, when the State is deemed to be the only knight in shining armour, are we not entering the era of neo-communism?

Back in the days of the Great Recession, capitalists were bending over backwards dreaming up theories and monikers to argue that Governments dolling out liquidity to save large banks and corporations was not actually nationalisation but part and parcel of capitalism; they even came up with a phrase for Chinese state corporations, State Capitalism; this time around, it would be impossible to call a spade capitalism and not a spade.

The State, as time passes (if not already), across the globe is more likely than not to take control of resources and move towards a planned economy. Imports will be strictly regulated as in the good old days, capital flows will be micromanaged, businesses will require approvals, and most countries may be looking at rationing.

As the world economies swing to the other extreme - which is rather unfortunate, since perhaps the best solution is the golden mean that lies somewhere between free markets and no markets - success or failure will be highly dependent on visionary leadership, rather than greed.

Revenge of the fallen!

(The writer is a chartered accountant based in Islamabad. Email: syed.bakhtiyarkazmi@gmail.com. The views expressed in this article are personal. The views are not necessarily those of the newspaper)