Demanding the federal and provincial governments to enforce the country-wide lockdown for another month in letter and spirit, eminent physicians of the country warned that if preventive measures were not taken, number of Covid-19 cases could reach upto 70,000 by May 15, of which 7000 would be requiring the help of ventilators to remain alive while total ventilators in the country are not more than 3500.
"We are observing easing down of the lockdown in the country and this can prove disastrous for Pakistan. If we don't enforce the lockdown in letter and spirit, the projected number of coronavirus cases care can rise upto 70,000 by May 15. As many as 7000 people would require life support but our country has not the capacity to cater even half of these patients," said Dr Saad Khalid Niaz, an eminent physician and gastroenterologist by profession while addressing a news conference at Karachi Press Club on Wednesday.
They demand banning all types of congregation including at supermarkets, shopping malls and the mosques, saying people should not gather at any place at least for one and half to two months so that transmission of coronavirus could be minimised as much as possible and urged Ulema and people of offer prayers at homes.
They also demanded complete closure of shopping malls, supermarkets and stores and all other places where people gather at one place, saying this is the time when we should strictly implement the lockdown to ease burden on country's fragile healthcare system.
Accompanied by Prof Abdul Bari Khan, CEO Indus Hospital Karachi, Prof Misbahul Aziz Former Central President of Pakistan Islamic Medical Association - PIMA, Dr Qaiser Sajjad Secretary General Pakistan Medical Association (PMA), Prof Sohail Akhter and Prof Atif Hafeez Siddiqui from PIMA, Prof Muhammad Azeemuddin President PIMA Karachi and Dr Imran Hamid, Dr Saad Khalid Niaz disclosed that as soon as lockdown was eased in Sindh, there was an exponential growth in Covid-19 cases during last five days in the country.
"Week wise data suggests an exponential increase in number of patients. We have seen a rapid increase in numbers in just 5 days (6772 on April 16, to 9464 on April 21,): An increase of 2692 patients. This is very alarming and we fear situation is getting out of the control of doctors and the government in the country," Dr Saad Khalid Niaz said, and urged people to follow the advice and instructions of the doctors instead of listening to the rumours and myths.
Claiming that around 162 healthcare providers had been infected with coronavirus in Sindh alone, Dr Saad said Covid-19 is a medical problem and only doctors and physicians know it best. "Myths have so far have made the situation worse than we think. There is no truth in the myths that we are chosen ones and it will not harm us. If we ignored the warnings now, there would be no space for patients at hospitals and they would be lying in the corridors of the hospitals," he added.
Chief Executive Officer of the Indus Health Network Prof Abdul Bari Khan said 80 percent of the isolation beds at the ICUs of few hospitals treating Covid-19 patients were already occupied and disclosed that there was no space available for more patients at Indus, Ojha and Aga Khan Hospitals for the Covid-19 patients.
"If we failed to realise the situation and continued to more around, I'm afraid there would be an exponential growth in the number of cases and high mortality in the days to come. We appeal you to follow our advice, follow the lockdown and do not venture out in the month of May to remain safe and prevent others also," Prof Abdul Bari Khan added.
Prof Bari said about 175 stable patients are already in Field Isolation Centre at Expo Centre with a capacity of 200 at the moment which will be overflowed with patients. "The situation we fear in the comings days is that of refusal to admit patients because of no beds or God forbid, choosing which patient to ventilate and which to let die," he warned.
"In fact, severity is much more than we think of. Healthcare workers (HCW) have themselves fallen ill due to Covid-19 itself. More than 162 HCW have been tested positive in Sindh. Many more others have been sidelined because of quarantine. This rapid reduction in manpower needed to combat the storm will add on to the grave problem we are facing right now," he informed.
Deploring that neither they have any cure at present nor capacity to fight this disease, Prof Bari said the only way to save lives is to slowdown the number of cases by implementing social distancing and strict lockdown for the next few weeks.
Prof Atif Hafeez Sidiqui of PIMA demanded strict enforcement of lockdown and prevention of congregations of all sorts to contain the rapid spread of Covid-19 and said while the government should perform its responsibility by implementing the lockdown, general public should cooperate by remaining indoors while the business community should bear the hardship for few more weeks by closing departmental stores, shops and shopping centres except those of basic necessities. Alternative modes of business should be explored and used, he added.
Urging the society especially charitable organisations and NGO to take lead in ensuring the provision of basic necessities especially food to those in need, Prof Hafeez said Ramazan is the month of giving and Infaq. "We are sure that by looking after each other, nobody will remain hungry."
He also urged the religious scholars from all sects to understand that saving lives is of foremost importance in this epidemic, PIMA office-bearer maintained that they should endorse the need to keep common people away from aggregation in mosques.
"The different innovations suggested are unlikely to be followed by majority: even if sick and old avoid mixing in the mosque, the healthier and young may bring the virus home and infect others. Almost all the Islamic countries have closed the mosques including Haramain, for the time being. Taraweeh can be offered at home, similarly it is strongly needed to continue with the limitation of regular prayers and jumma by the mosque staff only," he added.
"We need support of government, scholars, business community, philanthropists, and public to fight this together. We pray Allah SWT for His Mercy and giving us strength and resources to carry on till it is required," Prof Atif added.