The pharmaceutical industry has done quite well by maintaining its operations while much of the rest of the country had to go into lockdown. Keeping medicines on store shelves is no less important than keeping hospitals open, of course, regardless of the nature and magnitude of the emergency that necessitated the quarantine in the first place. Everybody realised right from the beginning that the shutter-down approach, to contain the spread of the coronavirus, would work only if the supply of food and other essential items was ensured. But now the pharma industry has begun facing serious raw material shortages, which puts the country in danger of running out of life-saving drugs used to treat diseases like cancer, thalassemia, hepatitis, etc., along with malaria treatment medicines and snake and dog bite vaccines. And the industry has sounded a collective red alert that should grab the government's most urgent attention.

The supply bottleneck is traced to India and, to an extent, to China. The former accounts for a good 40 percent of all pharmaceutical industry raw material globally. But since the political bitterness between Islamabad and New Delhi also spilled over into matters relating to trade and commerce, particularly after India ended the special status of Occupied Kashmir on August 5 last year, we have just been pushed out of this particular market. Imports from friendly neighbour China are also compromised, unfortunately, because of the lockdown. And while some cargo is still being shipped through ports but freight charges have been increased many times, which renders it unaffordable for the local industry. Already it is preparing to absorb a 40 percent decline in sales this month because OPDs (Outdoor Patients Departments) are shut and people are generally reluctant to go to hospitals to avoid any unnecessary exposure to the coronavirus. Abnormal raw material costs at this point, no matter how understandable given the circumstances, could well push it towards insolvency. It's already got to the point that the problem is not just restricted to a large range of imported drugs, but locally-made medicines, like cough syrups and vaccines for rabies, are also short in the market.

If the government does not step in and stop this haemorrhaging urgently, this problem could snowball very quickly. Industry leaders have already raised the matter at relevant forums like the Ministry of Health, National Disaster Management Authority (NDMA) and other departments, but with no success so far. The government's priorities right now, perhaps understandably, are turned towards putting out fires that are still raging as opposed to supply chain issues that can cause longer term problems. It is more focused on import of protective equipment that doctors have been demanding throughout the crisis like gowns, masks and ventilators. There's very little, if any, raw material for medicines or vaccines making its way into Pakistan these days. While one cannot argue with prioritising doctors' safety in this extraordinary effort, given the country's limited resources, it must still be stressed that attending only one part of the problem and ignoring others risk compromising the entire response effort to the virus; perhaps irrevocably.

The country will not be able to function, much less lead a fight against the coronavirus, if it is continually without life-saving drugs for the most serious diseases like cancer as well as unable to provide medicines for simple flu and cough. The decision to keep the pharmaceutical industry running was taken very early on, along with keeping pharmacies open 24/7 across the country, precisely because of its importance. And, of course, a lot more needs to be done to keep industries open than issue executive orders. So it was believed that the government was doing whatever was necessary to erect all the supply chains that were needed. Nobody expected this to be an easy exercise given the lockdown and the ability of the coronavirus to spread very far, very fast. That, in turn, was why the idea of a 'smart' lockdown was so important. That only people who really needed to be out for the most important duties - producing medicines and keeping pharmacies open among them - should be exempted from the lockdown. What we have seen, on the other hand, is far too many people moving around freely in defiance of the lockdown and not enough done where it is most urgently needed. The government must look very seriously into all problems of the pharmaceutical industry and make sure it gets supplies from elsewhere if India won't play ball even in these extraordinary circumstances. It must also make sure that other essential industries do not face similar problems.