A conversation with Asad Umar usually follows a certain path: you raise a question and he gives a long answer with lots of specifics, data and details without even pausing for a breath. Yesterday afternoon was quite different. As the PTI politician prepares to take charge of the Finance Ministry, he avoids giving too many details. Instead, he offers his and his party’s guiding principles. When pressed further, he says: “You will have a lot of details very soon but let us first at least take the oath”. What follows, therefore, are his general views on the IMF, and his thoughts on how his party will be doing differently in terms of economic governance.
BR Research: There seems to be a consensus that you will have to go to the IMF; their staff is also reportedly making rounds and making data inquiries to section officers in Q-block. But what are your thoughts; is IMF on your agenda?
Asad Umar: The PML-N government failed to take actions when the balance-of-payment surfaced on the horizon. Instead it played politics with the economy; it wanted to spend on PSDP to prepare for the elections. Then the caretaker government came about, and because it has a limited mandate, there was little that it could do, which is why the problem worsened. Now there is not enough time to take corrective measures, wait it out, and see if it is working, and then try anything else. 
Right now, all options are on the table. Whether it is going to the IMF, or to any bilateral friend of Pakistan; raise a diaspora bond; or anything else; all of these will be decided when the cabinet takes charge; and it will be decided quickly. It’s too early to precisely say which of the options will be chosen. As we are yet to form the government, we cannot talk to any friends of Pakistan; nor do we have any coordination with the ministries in question.
BRR: Where does your intellectual bias lie?
AU: Whatever option offers the highest net present value for Pakistan.
BRR: If you chose the IMF option, how are you to ensure that we won’t be back to square one when the programme ends?
AU: I have been scathingly critical of the IMF because no structural reforms took place in the last program or in the programs before, and they kept on giving waivers upon waivers. That said, structural reforms should not be done because it is IMF’s requirement; it should be done because we need those reforms.
Industry after industry and crop after crop; there are no quick fixes; no silver bullet to solve Pakistan’s economic problems. What is needed is a comprehensive set of policy reforms, and then ensures its implementation through a pre-defined set of key performance indicators.
BRR: What if IMF insists on privatization, and the rolling back of the 7th NFC?
AU: I will not speculate on specific clauses in terms of what can and cannot be negotiated. We will not like to box ourselves out. These things will be decided once we sit down for negotiations.
BRR: What will be the size of PTI’s cabinet? And can you share some names from that team of 200 people that Imran Khan spoke about?
AU: It will be a small cabinet; but you will have to wait for fifteen days for the details. As for the team, we have short-listed some names; they will be finalized and announced in due course and appointed accordingly.
Our first order of business is to lock in federal and provincial governments. That phase will hopefully be over by today or tomorrow. The next phase is the formation of cabinet, at least the core ministries. Then we move to the steps that we need to take immediately – things that are part of our 100-day plan, a key step would be to form the team you have referred to. Don’t expect that teams will be formed without taking the ministers on board. This discussion will start probably day after tomorrow.
BRR: But what about the secretaries; they are after all principle officers of the ministries, say textile or commerce. Will there be technocrats in the cabinet; what is going to be the governance model?
AU: There are still good bureaucrats out there. Plus, every ministry has room to accommodate expert consultants alongside the bureaucracy. While we won’t have a technocratic cabinet - it will largely be political – but it may be possible that we opt for non-political persons in the cabinet as special advisors.
A lot of the implementation is not done at ministerial level; it is done through the institutions, which is where successive governments in Pakistan have failed to focus on. Our key focus to begin with would be to strengthen those institutions; the state-owned entities, the regulatory institutions, and so forth. We will involve people of credibility to strengthen the institutions; that’s where the team shall be used. Some of these people have already proven their mettle in KP; for instance, the case of its health reform.
In KP’s health reform, instead of an impersonal provincial health secretary centrally controlling nearly 700 hospitals from Peshawar, the governance was devolved to hospital-level and made accountable to hospital boards set up for that purpose. Similarly, in police, we passed a new police act that single handily changed the structure of that system.
BRR: Will civil service appointments be arbitrary or through a formal selection by some kind of ‘appointments committee’ of the cabinet?
AU: Civil service reforms is one of the key items on our agenda; we cannot have long term growth and development without fixing the civil service – how people are trained, placed, evaluated and so forth – all of that is a part of our agenda. But these reforms are not going to be a one-time event; it’s a long process of which some might be achieved in year one and others in later years. It’s a process that will be unleashed soon and you will continue to see changes over time.
BRR: If you are unable to form a government in Punjab, how will you deliver considering that so many subjects fall in the provincial domain?
AU: I disagree with that premise because the PTI is forming a government in Punjab. In KP and in Punjab, we will be judged by the totality of the promises, and in Sindh we will be judged by the promises that are under control of the federal government.
BRR: What broad changes can we expect in the revised budget?
AU: There are things we can do and things we can’t. For instance, if they have increased the salary of government employees, then we can’t take it back. But for example, in the case of PSDP we can always go back and see which items are in line with our priorities. Our overall budget contours you already know of; we believe excessive reliance on indirect taxes should be reduced as it places disproportionate burden on the middle class and the poor and stifled business – and it will be reduced over time. You will also see a change of direction in terms of WHT-isation of economy.
BRR: PTI’s manifesto is silent on some of the key items relating to the strengthening of federation, such as the incomplete agenda of the 18th amendment, the NFC and the strengthening of the Council of Common Interests.
AU: I agree the new NFC award is already delayed; it’s long overdue and it’s on our agenda; it will be done. As for the CCI, the first step would be to do what is written in the constitution; have a functioning CCI secretariat, and unlike the PML-N’s model, start with holding periodic meetings of the CCI as per the constitution. These are some of the obvious things that fall in the larger framework of institutional strengthening that we have promised to do. At this stage, it is too early to provide specifics, but these things are on our agenda; it’s overdue and can’t be left for too long.
BRR: What will be your preferred process of decision making?
AU: We need to undertake a national reconstruction effort, and the economy is obviously a part of it. The one stark difference that you will see is that ours will be an inclusive approach. For example, you will see the parliament being engaged much more; you will see the CCI getting actively engaged in the process, and you will see platforms being created outside the parliament for inclusive decision making.
Solving Pakistan’s problems is not a political party issue, and not a partisan issue; because the challenge is so huge, you have to ensure that all the best brains of the country are able to contribute to the process and that is why I am being evasive on the specific answers at the moment. I don’t want to singularly point out and say this is what we will do; no one is ‘Mr-know-it-all’.
Lastly, in economic decision making you will see a lot more transparency; for example, why is electricity generation and transmission data is not made public; it used to be publicly available, but the PML-N stopped that practice a long time ago.
BRR: When can we see those inclusive platforms emerge?
AU: You will see those platforms emerge within days, not weeks of Imran khan taking oath, and that’s when we will come out with specifics.
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