Pakistan's agricultural productivity is relatively low compared with global competitors as various environmental, political and economic shocks hinder agriculture production, says the Asian Development Bank (ADB).
The ADB in its latest report "Agriculture Development in the Central Asia Regional Economic Cooperation Program Member Countries Review of Trends, Challenges, and Opportunities" maintained that Pakistan has suffered from episodes of political instability and natural disasters that hindered agriculture production in certain regions.
The report states that a significant portion of Pakistan's economy is derived from its agriculture sector. Agriculture's share of national output has remained constant since 2000, even though it was previously higher. In 2017, agriculture accounted for 24.4% of its national GDP. Currently, the services sector is the largest contributor to national GDP. In 2016, total agricultural output was approximately $67 billion, compared with the national GDP of $283 billion. Pakistan's per capita GDP in 2016 was $1,462.
Pakistan's vast natural resource endowments allow it to produce a wide variety of agricultural products and participate actively in the export of these commodities. It is among the leading producers of several niche horticultural products and staple foods such as rice and wheat.
While greater trade with neighboring countries could have provided mutual benefits, prospects for greater agricultural trade between Pakistan and India run counter to political sensitivities for domestic producers in both the countries. India granted Pakistan preferential trade status in the 1990s, shortly after gaining accession into the WTO. However, trade barriers continued to persist on both sides, and India ultimately revoked that status in February 2019.
The report further states that Pakistan's long-term national development plan, known as Vision 2025, aimed to transform the country into a private sector-led major exporter by 2025. However, recent policies, such as the export ban of wheat imposed during the global food price crisis of 2007-2008 and tariffs on imported agricultural products signal lingering opposition to trade liberalization, even after the simplification of tariff systems in the mid-1990s.
Furthermore, even if partial and full exemptions were introduced for certain commodities in the mid-2000s, tariff levels for those commodities remained high, hindering Pakistan's greater participation in global value chains. In 2015, Pakistan announced a three-year Strategy Trade Policy Framework, 2015-2018, which aimed to place exports at the center of economic growth. However, from 2015 to 2017, Pakistani exports recorded negative growth each year.
The country is highly vulnerable to climate change, ranking 8th globally in terms of nations most affected by climate-related events from 1998 to 2017 according to Germanwatch's Global Climate Risk Index 2018. Pakistan incurred $3.8 billion worth of damage from climate change over that time frame.
Agricultural productivity is relatively low compared with global competitors with similar agro-climatic conditions. Agricultural households are constrained by their access to land, as policymakers have struggled to overcome staunch political opposition to implement reform. Meanwhile, the government continues to intervene in certain aspects of agricultural marketing, maintained the report.
The Bank further stated that Pakistan has suffered from weather-related and other natural disasters that could be exacerbated by the effects of climate change. Investment in infrastructure, wider access to agricultural credit, land reform, and policy emphasis on climate resilience will help Pakistan achieve higher rates of productivity growth in its agriculture sector.
Pakistan's policymakers have focused on enhancing crop productivity through research into more suitable crop varieties, improved water use efficiency (delivery and application) and modernized irrigation, promotion of high-value export crops, better distribution of credit, better post harvest and marketing mechanisms, and improved access to inputs.
However, constraints on Pakistan's agriculture sector are confounded by problems in public policy and governance. Pakistan must lay the groundwork for identifying and implementing targeted policy strategies that involve active stakeholder participation.
It states with a total population of about 204 million (of which 122 million or 60 % live in rural areas), Pakistan is a lower middle-income country with a large agriculture sector. Afghanistan borders it to the northwest, Iran to the west, India to the east, and the PRC to the northeast.
It contains vast natural resources but is vulnerable to various environmental, political and economic shocks. Pakistan has suffered from episodes of political instability and natural disasters that hindered agriculture production in certain regions. Despite these challenges, Pakistan is among the world's leading agricultural producers in some food items.
In 2016, about 42% (37 million ha) of Pakistan's land was utilized for agriculture. Of the total agricultural area, around 84% (31 million ha) is arable, 14% (5.1 million ha) is classified as permanent meadow and pasture, and 2.1% (780,000 ha) is planted with permanent (perennial) or plantation crops. Crops produced in Pakistan include cereals (53.5% of the cropped area), followed by fiber crops (22.7%), oilseeds (13.6%), horticulture (4.6%), and other crops (5.7%).
The report states that Pakistan has an annual water supply of around 55 billion cubic meters, of which around 47 billion cubic meters land is classified as internally produced surface water and 55 billion cubic meters land comes from internally produced groundwater, with an overlap of 47 billion cubic meters.
Surface water and groundwater are primarily replenished from rainfall and runoff from the Indus River Basin that extends across 80% of Pakistan's arable land. It also irrigates roughly 52% of the country's agricultural area. Of Pakistan's 21.3 million ha of potentially irrigable land, around 20 million ha (roughly 94%) is currently developed with irrigation facilities. Agriculture accounted for 94% of total water utilization in 2008 (more recent data were not available).
The growth of national GDP and the country's agricultural GDP, highlighting the significantly slower growth rate of agriculture compared with other sectors. The figures suggest little structural transformation among major economic sectors over this period. While there is still a significant gap between agriculture's share of labor and output, it appears that the two figures have remained steady.
Approximately 46% of agricultural production comes from the cropping sector, compared with 54% from livestock. Buffalo meat was the single most valuable commodity produced in Pakistan in 2016 at around $9.8 billion. Other important commodities produced included buffalo's milk ($9.4 billion), wheat ($7.4 billion), beef ($5.5 billion), cotton ($3.3 billion), and chicken meat ($3.2 billion).
Sugarcane was the largest crop produced with 65 million tons in 2016. Other important products included wheat (26 million tons), rice (10.2 million tons), maize (6.1 million tons), and cotton (5.3 million tons). Around 4.5 million tons of fertilizers were used in Pakistan in 2016, and a further 913,000 tons were imported into the country that year.
Pakistan's livestock sub-sector, on the other hand, has demonstrated steady growth, especially in the face of increasing demand for livestock products due to a growing and rapidly urbanized population.
The country's livestock sub-sector represents approximately 56% of value addition in agriculture and employs roughly 30 million people. Despite the increased production of poultry products, its external trade is low and has not realized the potential experienced in other livestock sub-sectors. In 2016, total poultry exports were valued at $2.7 million.
Pakistan imported $7.1 billion worth of agricultural goods in 2016, compared with $3.7 billion in agricultural exports. Pakistan's main agricultural export commodities were rice ($1.7 billion), wheat flour ($173 million), tangerines and mandarins ($158 million), beef ($155 million), sugar ($123 million), and dates ($103 million). Palm oil was Pakistan's main food import at $1.7 billion, followed by cotton lint ($581 million), tea ($490 million), rapeseed ($464 million), soybeans ($383 million), and coffee ($329 million).
The average daily per capita calorific intake was estimated at 2,440 kcal in 2013. Cereals accounted for 48% of daily calorific intake in 2013. Calorific intake from animal sources comprised 22%, while fruit and vegetables accounted for 2%. The average daily per capita protein consumption was estimated at 65.5 grams, while the average dietary energy supply adequacy was estimated to be 108% in 2015-2017.
The prevalence of undernourishment expresses the probability that a randomly selected individual from the country consumes an inadequate number of calories to cover his/her energy requirement, according to FAO criteria. During 2015-2017, this figure was 20.5%, representing a steady but gradual decrease since early 2000. Undernourishment is a lingering problem in parts of Pakistan.
Obesity is an increasing problem in developing countries, including CAREC. Anthropometric data show that this is a minor but growing problem in Pakistan. Obesity had been steadily increasing from 3.8% in 2002 to 7.8% in 2016.
The prevalence of obesity is low compared with other CAREC countries but demonstrates the same upward long-term trend.
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