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Nov 22, 2024 اردو ► PRINT EDITION ► BR MARKETS ► Dollar to PKR ►

Dr Hafiz A Pasha

Social and economic trends
Opinion

Social and economic trends

The Pakistan Bureau of Statistics (PBS) has recently released the key findings from two major surveys - the Pakistan Social and Living Standards Measurement Survey (PSLSMS) and the Household Integrated Economic Survey (HIES) - of 2018-19. These efforts at
Published 28 Apr, 2020 12:54am
Targeting the poor and vulnerable
Opinion

Targeting the poor and vulnerable

The Coronavirus is going to have an adverse impact on the living standard of millions of families in Pakistan. Households which are already poor will suffer further deprivation. As the GDP growth rate plummets and actually falls in absolute magnitude, the
Published 07 Apr, 2020 12:00am
Analysis of monetary policy statement
Opinion

Analysis of monetary policy statement

The much-awaited Monetary Policy Statement (MPS) of the SBP was released a few days ago. It contains a review of the state of the economy and an assessment of the short-run prospects, based on which the Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) has decided on the p
Published 24 Mar, 2020 12:00am
Budgetary outcome in 2019-20
Opinion

Budgetary outcome in 2019-20

The Mid-term Budget Review of 2019-20 was presented recently to the National Assembly. The outcome in the first six months reveals success in limiting the primary deficit and achieving the target agreed with the IMF. In fact, a primary surplus has been ac
Published 17 Mar, 2020 12:00am
Dip in the rate of inflation
Opinion

Dip in the rate of inflation

There has been a noticeable drop in the rate of inflation on a year-to-year basis. The national Consumer Price Index (CPI) increased by 14.6 percent in January 2020. It has fallen by 2.2 percentage points to 12.4 percent in February 2020. However, it is p
Published 10 Mar, 2020 12:00am
FBR revenue shortfall
Opinion

FBR revenue shortfall

The shortfall in FBR revenues is likely to reach a record level this year. The magnitude of this shortfall will be the prime determinant of the extent to which the primary deficit in the budget diverges from the target level agreed with the IMF for 2019-2
Published 03 Mar, 2020 12:00am
State of public finances
Opinion

State of public finances

The previous financial year closed with the largest ever budget deficit. The magnitude was Rs 3,445 billion, equivalent to 8.9 percent of the GDP. The increase in relation to 2017-18 was 2.3 percent of the GDP. This severe deterioration in the state of pu
Published 25 Feb, 2020 12:00am
IMF second review
Opinion

IMF second review

The IMF staff review of the Extended Fund Facility has been completed and a press statement issued. There is need to appreciate efforts of the government in meeting all the six performance criteria again as was the case in the first programme review. This
Published 18 Feb, 2020 12:00am
IMF's projections
Opinion

IMF's projections

The article last week by me had assessed the projections made for 2019-20 by the IMF staff following the First Review. This article analyses the projections for the last two years of the Program, 2020-21 and 2021-22. The IMF projections for the next two y
Published 11 Feb, 2020 12:00am
IMF's projections for 2019-20
Opinion

IMF's projections for 2019-20

The first review report prepared by the IMF staff became available in late-December 2019. This followed the successful completion by Pakistan of this review. All the performance criteria were met. This has improved perceptions about the extent of success
Published 04 Feb, 2020 12:00am
Inflow of external financing
Opinion

Inflow of external financing

Pakistan's external debt and liabilities first crossed the level of $100 billion in March 2019. Consequently, the external debt to GDP ratio reached the peak of over 36 percent. Bulk of this debt is public in nature and accounts currently for almost 80 pe
Updated 28 Jan, 2020 04:57am
The wide and deep slowdown
Opinion

The wide and deep slowdown

The process of slowdown of the economy continues in an uninterrupted manner. The initial signs of a loss of momentum in economic activity first became visible from December 2018 onwards. The leading sector in experiencing a decline in production has been
Published 21 Jan, 2020 12:00am
Food inflation rises to 22pc!
Opinion

Food inflation rises to 22pc!

The Sensitive Price Index (SPI) for the first full week of 2020 ending on the 9th of January has been released by the Pakistan Bureau of Statistics (PBS). Credit must be given to the PBS for, more or less, immediate release on a weekly basis of informatio
Updated 14 Jan, 2020 06:13am
Economic outlook for 2020
Opinion

Economic outlook for 2020

The single most important development in 2019 on the economic front was the entry by Pakistan into a three year Extended Facility with the IMF. The Program envisages very intensive and fast moves to achieve a big reduction in the current account deficit i
Published 07 Jan, 2020 12:00am
Fall in industrial output
Opinion

Fall in industrial output

The fall in output of the large-scale manufacturing sector has become pervasive and persistent in nature. Given the strong backward and forward linkages of this sector with other sectors of the national economy this does not auger well for GDP growth in 2
Updated 24 Dec, 2019 06:07am
Human development in Pakistan
Opinion

Human development in Pakistan

The Global Human Development Report (GHDR) of the UNDP was released recently in Islamabad. This report constructs a Human Development Index (HDI) for 189 countries. This ranking of countries has emerged as a key measure of the level of development in rela
Updated 17 Dec, 2019 09:24am
Rising poverty
Opinion

Rising poverty

The measurement of the number of poor in Pakistan has relied on different approaches. The most commonly used method is to derive a poverty line and determine the extent to which the per capita consumption expenditure of a family falls below this poverty l
Updated 10 Dec, 2019 05:24am
Understatement of the rate of inflation
Opinion

Understatement of the rate of inflation

Pakistan has been experiencing double-digit inflation after a gap of eight years. This has motivated the Pakistan Bureau of Statistics to change the base year of the Consumer Price Index (CPI) from 2007-08 to 2015-16 so as to be able to monitor inflationa
Updated 03 Dec, 2019 05:51am
The downside of Pakistan's economy
Opinion

The downside of Pakistan's economy

The government has recently been making frequent positive statements about on-going developments in the economy. Rightfully, success in the process of stabilization has been highlighted. The current account in the balance of payments was transformed into
Published 26 Nov, 2019 12:00am
Lower GDP growth rate in 2018-19
Opinion

Lower GDP growth rate in 2018-19

The economy has been in a state of 'stagflation' for over a year now. The GDP growth rate has fallen while there has been a spurt in the rate of inflation. What is not generally realized is how wide and deep the decline in value added or production is in
Updated 19 Nov, 2019 10:24am