The government has had a rather tough first year in office, missing most of the targets it promised. That is one way of looking at it, as the Institute for Policy Reforms (IPR) headed by former finance minister Hafiz Pasha has published a report named "Economic Scorecard of the PML-N government in 2013-14. Recall that prior to the Elections 2013; it was PML-Ns manifesto, which received most positive reviews from all corners, strictly in terms of the economic agenda.
A year down the road, IPR has attempted to track the economic performance in relation to the commitments made and targets set in the manifesto. It is one way of judging performance, but it must also be kept in mind that election manifestos generally tend to be on the optimistic side, rightly or wrongly. The methodology adopted is based on the simple rule of allocating equal weight age to all indicators in a timeline spanned over five years.
Some would argue it may not be the smartest methodology, as targets spread over five years are not necessarily planned to be achieved with such symmetry. Especially, when the first year at office is mostly about planning, streamlining and then taking the momentum forward to the years ached. The report is still a good attempt, which also provides a peek in the future, more than just the track record of 14 selected indicators.
The scorecard does not make a nice reading, not less if you are the government. Achieving only one of the 14 selected indicators can certainly be called elow par. The one lucky variable to have made the cut is the budget deficit, which was well within the target. All other indicators, including three power and two social sector variables, were found wanting.
That said, there is still a silver lining in some areas as tax revenue, PSE losses, public debt and healthy spending variables have shown signs of improvement. Status-quo is observed in LSM growth, T&D losses in power sector, educations spending and social protection spending. What is worrisome is that the list of downers is longer - mostly featuring key macroeconomic indicators and the most vital power sector variable, i.e. collection and recovery.
Whether one year is adequate enough time to be analyzing a program based on five years is open to debate, but there is little doubt that the government has some catching up to do to achieve most of the targets laid out. The political situation has not helped, but there is surely light at the end of tunnel, especially when commodity prices have softened. Bit more focus on the energy front with the right priorities can address lot of issues.
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