Brazil economy seen improving slightly at end of weak 2012

SAO PAULO: Brazil's economy probably picked up slightly in the fourth quarter but continued to grow at a sluggish pace, with services and consumer spending offsetting weak investments and industrial output, a Reuters poll showed.

The fourth quarter was probably the best in a year to forget for Brazil's economy, with an expansion of 0.7 percent from the third quarter on a seasonally adjusted basis, according to the median estimate of 36 economists.

After a robust economic boom over the last decade, Brazil probably expanded just 0.9 percent last year, the worst since the global financial crisis in 2008-2009, according to the median forecast of 41 economists surveyed by Reuters.

"The numbers will show a slight acceleration of the economy, but at a slower pace than previously expected," wrote Leonardo Sapienza, chief economist at Banco Votorantim.

The official data will be released on Friday at 9 a.m. local time (1200 GMT).

Investors and economists have long expected a gradual recovery following a raft of stimulus from President Dilma Rousseff's government. The country's giant consumer market, underpinned by record-low unemployment, lured foreign investors and supported demand for services throughout 2012. But the tight job market also increased labor costs for struggling industries.

The picture of an economy operating on two tracks probably remained in the fourth quarter, economists said.

Household and government spending probably continued to drive up growth, with an annual expansion of around 4 percent, according to LCA Consultores.

Meanwhile, investments - as measured by gross fixed capital formation - likely remained weak, falling for the sixth consecutive quarter or growing at a meager pace. Brazil's chronically low investment levels are often blamed for the infrastructure bottlenecks raising costs for local manufacturing.

The mismatch between consumer demand and companies' ability to supply goods and services has also fueled inflation, raising concerns that policymakers could unwind some stimulus measures this year to keep prices under control.

Industry probably slowed from an unexpected uptick in the third quarter, while services should recover from a surprise drop, economists said.

Most of the third-quarter decline in services activity was due to a slowdown in the financial sector - something unlikely to recur with the same intensity, said Thais Zara, chief economist at Rosenberg & Associados.

Weak demand for Brazil's raw material exports also dragged on its economy in the fourth quarter, according to analysts. Brazil posted a record current account deficit for two straight months in December and January.

Brazil's fourth-quarter GDP likely rose 1.6 percent from the same period a year earlier, up from a 0.9 percent year-on-year rise in the third quarter, the median of 33 estimates showed.

Forecasts for the quarterly growth rate ranged from 0.4 percent to 1.2 percent, while estimates for the year-over-year rate varied from 0.9 percent to 2.1 percent.

Earlier this month, a central bank GDP proxy showed economic activity had expanded 0.62 percent in the fourth quarter from the previous three months.