The postponement of the Chinese President's visit to Pakistan is a downer. That Xi Jinping would be in India next week instead of Pakistan is a symbolic knock back for Pakistan's arguably convoluted foreign policy. The deferment is a setback, if not a debacle, for the Pakistani government that has seemingly put all its eggs in the Chinese basket to plug gaping holes in the countrys energy and infrastructure sectors.
Yet there is no reason for continued dismay. To start with, the Chinese foreign office explained over the weekend, the visit is still on. The Chinese spokesman remarked: "Both countries underline that China and Pakistan are time-tested all-weather friends. Both sides attach high importance to the visit of President Xi Jinping to Pakistan, as early as possible, for promoting mutually-beneficial cooperation between the two."
For Nawaz Sharif's government that has been really busy firefighting for over a month now, the postponement allows precious time for relevant departments to prepare for the visit. Recall that back in the Zardari-led government, on occasions, the Chinese government reportedly griped about lack of preparation on Pakistani end. In the end, Pakistan's MoUs signed with the former President Hu Jintao's administration could not materialise, although President Zardari had made several visits to China.
Lack of preparation concerns issues such as those which the Chinese government reportedly had with Pakistan's public procurement (PPRA) rules. President Zardari tried to accommodate those concerns but he could not succeed in bypassing the rules. It is not clear whether or not the Sharif government has smoothed things out on that front, along with the issue of limited state capacity to execute massive projects.
It is clear that the Chinese investors cannot be bypassed from all the rules. But a middle ground can surely be found. If the Chinese are going the extra mile (details below), perhaps their counterparts can also reciprocate through some legally-sound amendments to the pre-qualification and bidding processes!
Besides the need for active background engagement with the Chinese in the lead up to the visit, the delay also puts into spotlight governments negotiations with the protesting parties, whose perennial parking in Islamabad is ostensibly the raison dêtre for the postponement. There is an intense blame game going around for days now, but the trips holdup has thrown up a growing realisation among politicos that they need to get their act together.
Since their gradual warming up from the early 1960s, bilateral relations between China and Pakistan have stood the test of time. It is an ode to the Chinese development footprint--that extends from the mountains and valleys in Gilgit-Baltistan to the shores down south in Gwadar--when Pakistani politicians tirelessly describe Sino-Pak friendship to be higher than the Himalayas and sweeter than honey.
A long deferment does not suit Pakistan at all. China has the distinction of being perhaps the only global power player that unites Pakistani public opinion more than she divides it. That sentiment should energise the government to make amends and the protest leaders to come down from their maximalist positions.
President Xi's now-delayed visit had garnered high hopes in Pakistan. His engagements were supposed to be focused on bilateral investment opportunities. Already, China has reportedly pledged to invest $32 billion in Pakistan in energy ($20bn) and infrastructure projects ($12bn) in the coming 5-7 years. President Xi was also to inaugurate a portion of the Lahore-Karachi motorway, besides a couple of mega power projects that are being implemented by the Chinese companies.
That the trip is on hold for now may not mean much later when it actually happens. It seems that the Chinese have decided to swim deeper into Pakistani waters rather than their recent, occasional toe-dipping. It seems that the Chineses strategic and economic interests are finally converging in and for Pakistan.
Pakistans sea ports entice China. Gwadar's deep-sea port opens up Chinese access to the Strait of Hormuz, which connects the Persian Gulf and the Arabian Sea and is a major oil transport channel. Besides, the distance of Western China from Gwadar or Karachi ports is apparently shorter than from seaports in Eastern China.
It also makes more economic sense for China to use the shorter route for the mineral resources being imported from African countries. Such logistics, and the strategic connotations they imply, have apparently convinced China into developing port infrastructure in Pakistan and constructing highways along the Silk route to facilitate goods transportation.
Pakistan is set to gain a lot. The economic vibrancy of its northwestern region was historically due to it being used as trade corridor. With China entering the fray in a big way, the corridor can be revived in coming years. However, of immediate importance for Pakistan are energy-sector projects, inter-city highways and railways, and intra-city metro bus/rail systems, which are to be built with Chinese investment.
Finally, Xi's India visit (and not coming to Pakistan) should not come as a rude shock to Pakistani public. China and India fought a border war long ago, but they now have deep and mutual economic stakes. India's biggest trading partner is China. The two countries were recently described by the Chinese foreign minister as "natural partners". They often consult each other on how to approach or avoid international treaties. Both are integral to the BRICS economic block.
There's a lesson for Pakistan: look inwards and constructively engage with your neighbours. Through the visit postponement, President Xi may be advising Pakistanis the same.
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