Cotton plantings in the United States will surge this year after a recent rally hoisted prices to their highest since late 1995, industry analysts said Wednesday.
The analysts forecast the annual survey of the top industry group National Cotton Council (NCC) would show potential US cotton sowings averaging between 14.18 million and 14.23 million acres.
Last year, US cotton plantings reached 13.48 million acres.
The NCC survey will be released on Friday after the cotton futures market in New York closes at 3:00 pm EST (2000 GMT).
"They're (US farmers) going to attempt to plant 14 million acres and see if Mother Nature will allow them to that," Sharon Johnson, cotton expert for Frank Schneider and Co Inc, in Atlanta, said in a phone interview.
Carl Anderson, an economist with Texas A&M University, said high prices in the cotton futures market, combined with more-than-ample government support programs, will stoke US cotton sowings this year.
"I think the crop is well above 14.5 (million acres). I don't think any other crop has an edge over cotton," he added.
Cotton prices have rebounded sharply since sinking to a 29-year low in October 2001 of 28.20 cents a lb in the then December 2001 futures contract on the New York Cotton Exchange of the New York Board of Trade.
Last October, the spot December 2003 contract soared to a contract peak of 84.80 cents. March delivery, the current spot contract, has traded as high as 86 cents and on Wednesday morning was fetching 72.80 cents.
Analysts said US cotton farmers will not switch crops, especially after soybean and corn prices tumbled over fears that feed demand may get hit by the outbreak of the deadly Asian bird flu, along with fund liquidation. Soy and corn are ground into meal to feed poultry and livestock.
The disease has spread to China, posing a threat to its large poultry industry, along with a number of other Asian countries stretching from Pakistan to Indonesia.
Bird flu brought back memories of Sars (severe acute respiratory syndrome) which struck China last year, affecting US cotton exports to China and Asia's resurgent economies.
Jobe Moss, broker and merchant for MCM Inc in Lubbock, Texas, said he "does not see much switching" from cotton to other crops.
Johnson added that last year's "record quality and record yields will help keep people in cotton" in the United States.
Analysts say US cotton yields will hit a new record of 725 lbs per acre, topping the old mark of 708 lbs an acre set in the last decade, as good growing weather prevailed over most of the US cotton belt with the exception of Texas.
Separately, cotton plantings in Texas, the top cotton producing state in the country, are also seen rising in 2004.
Anderson said Texas plantings could range from 5.8 million to 5.9 million acres, against total plantings last year of 5.6 million acres. Production should hit 5.0 million (480-lb) bales of cotton, although much will depend on growing weather in 2004.
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