Australia sees big increase in long-term grain output

Australia, already the world's second largest wheat and largest barley exporter, is headed toward massive expansion of its grains industry, growers body Grains Council of Australia (GCA) forecast on Tuesday.
GCA said a leaner, smarter industry faced a 500 percent expansion in demand by 2025.
"Potentially very strong growth in demand to 2025 (will be) driven by new and emerging grains uses," GCA President Keith Perrett said, quoting new research.
Grains are already among Australia's largest export earners, with wheat bringing in around A$4 billion ($3 billion) and barley around A$1 billion in normal years.
Total winter grains production in 2003/04 amounted to about 40 million tonnes, including 25 million tonnes of wheat, 8.5 million tonnes of barley and 1.6 million tonnes of canola.
The summer sorghum crop amounted to 2.1 million tonnes. The pharmaceutical industry would triple demand for Australian grain to six million tonnes by 2020, domestic demand for malting barley would jump to one million tonnes by 2005 from less than 200,000 tonnes, while two percent of transport fuel would be bio-diesel and grain ethanol by 2012.
Around 20 million tonnes of grains would be required to support meat and poultry exports by 2020. At present Australia's domestic annual consumption of feed wheat, barley, sorghum and lupins is six to seven million tonnes a year.
"By 2020, the research shows that demand for cereals, pulses and oilseeds for existing uses will rise to 69 million tonnes. Demand for emerging uses for the same products is expected to rise to 149 million tonnes by 2020", Perrett said.
"Demand in 2005 for existing uses is expected to be around 50 million tonnes, and 1.4 million tonnes for emerging uses."
GCA also predicted that the number of Australian grains growers will fall to 30,000 or less from 40,000 by 2020, with producers making much fuller use of regional farm economics and grains futures.
Cropping areas may reach unsustainable limits, he warned. Costs of shipping wheat in containers may be $A10 a tonne cheaper to specific locations, on a $A180 a tonne basis, than bulk shipments by monopoly exporter AWB Ltd, he said.