Malaysian crude palm oil (CPO) futures ended beyond the 1,950 ringgit a tonne mark on Monday, and dealers said the market was poised to make a fresh attempt on the 2,000 ringgit barrier.
The Malaysia Derivatives Exchange's (MDEX's) benchmark third-month CPO contract, June, closed 23 ringgit up at 1,959 ringgit ($515) a tonne after friendly export and crop estimates for March and a surge in rival Chicago soyaoil.
June futures could breach 2,000 ringgit if soyaoil remained supportive until the release of March 1-25 exports estimates on Thursday, dealers said.
The third-month contract hit a five-year high of 2,003 ringgit on March 4. On the same day, leading industry analyst Dorab Mistry predicted it could peak at 2,200 ringgit by April.
But volatile soyaoil on the Chicago Board of Trade (CBOT), and worries about palm oil exports in March, had depressed the MDEX after Mistry's prediction. A technical rebound saw the June contract gaining 94 ringgit in the last six days.
Dealers said encouraging export estimates for March 1-20 and a lower palm oil closing stock forecast for March both on Monday put the market on a better footing.
"I think 2,000 ringgit is possible again if soyaoil holds, as our own fundamentals look better now," said a trader. Soya is palm's main rival and prices of both its bean and oil often dictate movements on the MDEX.
CBOT soya futures surged in Asian screen trade on Monday as fears of a smaller Brazilian crop amid low US stocks unnerved markets and triggered speculative buying, traders said.
May soyaoil gained 0.73 cent per lb to 34.84 cents in e-CBOT trade, while July was up 0.63 cent to 34.62 cents.
The main cargo surveyor for Malaysian palm oil exports, Societe Generale de Surveillance, said shipments for March 1-20 were estimated at 663,461 tonnes, up from 600,939 tonnes for February 1-20.
Private crop forecaster Ivan Wong said he expected end-March stocks of palm oil to contract to 930,000-940,000 tonnes from an official 987,853 tonnes at end-February.
Overall market volume on Monday stood at 5,097 lots, little changed from Friday's 5,393 lots.
In physical trading of CPO, the March contract saw bids/offers at 2,010/2,015 ringgit a tonne in the southern region, against on Friday's close of 2,000/2,010 ringgit.
In the central region, the cash contract for March saw bids at 2,000 ringgit and offers at 2,005. Trade for March was reported at 2,000-2,010 ringgit a tonne in the south and 2,000 ringgit in the central zone.
Physical CPO for April saw bids/offers at 2,000/2,010 ringgit a tonne in the south and 1,995/2,005 in the central region. Trade was for April was reported at 2,000 ringgit a tonne in the south and 1,995 in the central region.
PALM OIL FUTURES:
March (south): 2015.
Open/High/Low: 1946/1964/1938.
Previous closes: 2010.
PALM OIL PHYSICALS:
June (3rd month): 1957.
Previous settlement: 1934.
FUTURES: Benchmark third-month June up 23 ringgit at 1,957 ringgit ($515) a tonne.
PHYSICALS: Also up.
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