US cotton growers will probably harvest 18.8 million bales of cotton, which would rank as the fifth-largest crop on record, a University of Missouri think tank said Friday.
The Food and Agricultural Policy Research Institute said its figure was based on current crop conditions and adjusted for the average change in crop size between late July and the harvest.
"This would make our best guess on the crop at 722 lbs an acre or 18.8 million bales," said FAPRI analyst Seth Meyer.
Each bale weighs about 480 lbs (218 kg).
In reaching the figure, Meyer looked at weekly crop condition reports, planting dates, trendline yields and the outcome of past crops.
Current conditions suggest a crop of 19.4 million bales, at 750 lbs an acre. But conditions usually decline after late July. The average drop was 28 lbs.
Last year, American farmers produced 18.26 million bales.
The record was set in 2001 with 20.302 million bales, followed by 19.662 million bales in 1994, 18.946 million bales in 1937 and 18.942 million bales in 1996.
The US Agriculture Department is scheduled to issues its first cotton estimate on August 12. Assuming normal weather and yields, it has projected a crop of 18 million bales, at 665 lbs an acre.
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