Russia toys with China, Japan over lucrative oil pipeline

Russia is toying with China and Japan, both of which are courting its oil, in a pipeline drama that could see the downtrodden giant Yukos and its assets play the clinching role.
Either of Moscow's choices for a pipeline from its Siberian oil fields would make for an odd pair - all three nations have fought against each other over the past century and little trust has developed since.
But Russia, losing its footing on the international arena, is swimming in oil while Japan and China are thirsty for energy sources. Demand in the latter alone rose 12 percent this year, analysts say.
This places oil rather than guns in Moscow's hands as it begins to strut its influence and dip into Asia's richest reaches.
So far, Moscow has been unable to make up its mind in a situation that sets old rivals China and Japan against each other, with both sides claiming victory at one stage before being slapped down by infighting Russian officials.
A new pipeline to Japan would be more expensive and longer but potentially more profitable since it could also include exports to the United States.
Japan has volunteered to help finance the link through investments in Russia's Far East - but the two countries have still not signed a formal peace treaty ending World War II and bilateral relations remain testy at best.
Meanwhile the route to China is cheaper but likely to make less money since the market there is more limited.
And - critically - the China option was supported by the anti-Kremlin Yukos group that is about to lose its main producer over contested back taxes and perhaps see founder Mikhail Khodorkovsky spend 10 years bars.
Analysts in all three countries agree that China seems to be losing out as the fortunes of Russia's largest producer wane and its assets head towards the auction block - ready to go to state-linked companies that support the Japanese line.
A top Chinese economics official in Moscow said Beijing was ready to purchase the key Yukos subsidiary Yuganskneftegaz in order to secure a safe oil supply.
Not likely, analysts said.
"I think the Russian government made it clear last year that China is not allowed access to the Russian oil market," said Ron Smith of the Renaissance Capital investment bank.