As the United States heads towards a second consecutive presidential election in which the candidates are running neck-and-neck, an often overlooked constituency - overseas Americans - are signing up in droves to take part, many for the first time in decades. Estimates vary, but the total number of overseas Americans is at least 4.65 million, including 550,000 military and government personnel and their dependents, of which some three million are eligible to vote.
World events and the razor-thin closeness of the 2000 election - with absentee ballots helping to determine the outcome in the pivotal Florida vote - are the main factors behind the surge.
As for their political leanings, "both parties think that they have more voters abroad than the other," Lucy Laederich of the Federation of American Women's Clubs Overseas (FAWCO) said.
Joe Smallhoover, the international counsel of Democrats Abroad, charged that Republicans give highly exaggerated figures.
"They say as much as five to one," he said. "There's a theory that by citing those kind of numbers they discourage Democratic voters, but it's simply a number that they made up."
He added: "We think that based on anecdotal evidence, registration overseas is pretty much what it is back home, or slightly more Democratic," but he said this year the balance may shift to 60 percent Democrat to 40 percent Republican.
There is no doubt among organisers on either side of the divide that the 2004 election will see a record turnout overseas.
Democrats abroad are widely dismayed over the tarnishing of their country's reputation around the world in the wake of the invasion of Iraq, the Abu Ghraib prison torture scandal and US President George W. Bush's unilateral attitude towards international treaties.
But Laederich told AFP: "The (Iraq) war cuts both ways. There are people concerned over the rush to war, and there are people who are all fired up and think we should be the policemen of the world."
"We have never had such interest manifested," said Kathy Webster, who has been helping get out the overseas vote since 1980 in Britain.
"I keep getting messages from the voting assistance volunteers in FAWCO clubs throughout the world saying things like 'people are coming out of the woodwork, people who have never voted before - or not in the past 20 years."
She added in an e-mail interview: "I am also seeing dynamic get-out-the-vote campaigns being undertaken in clubs where there was never so much interest. It is amazing, and I trust it will translate into an enormously increased participation by Americans overseas."
The countries with the largest overseas American populations are Germany, Britain and France. More than 300,000 are in Germany, of whom at least one-third are military personnel and their families. More than 220,000 US citizens live in Britain and over 100,000 in France.
The state of New York lost two seats in the US House of Representatives that Laederich says would have been saved if all overseas Americans with New York voting homes had been accounted for by the census-takers.
A recent special effort to count absentee Americans was a flop, apparently because many feared the tax consequences.
Long-time Paris resident Phyllis Morgan said she asked herself: "If I fill this out am I looking for more trouble?"
Morgan, a Republican who has lived in France for 22 years and serves on the board of the Association of Americans Resident Overseas, said: "I think this is going to be the most important (election), certainly in my lifetime." On the issues, she said: "Americans over here are probably just as confused as they are back home ... It's a bit hazy what the (overseas) Republicans' focus is," she added, citing "obviously anti-terrorism (and) what's going to happen in Iraq."
Much like the Democrats, she added, "We view the elections as how we are being perceived overseas."
The absentee vote came into sharp focus in 2000 when some estimates put the total absentee ballot for Florida as between 2,000 and 3,000, including some 500 military voters. Traditionally absentee Floridians have tended to vote Republican.
Republicans Abroad says on its website: "Bush carried the state of Florida by 537 votes from Republicans overseas thanks to a massive international advertising campaign and strong grassroots leadership on the part of Republicans Abroad."
Webster said the idea of using an absentee ballot has gained appeal with doubts over the reliability of touch-screen voting machines being introduced in several US states. "The way we vote from overseas - by absentee ballot, with a definite paper trail - is more reassuring right now," she said.
Laeterich, for her part, said: "There will be so many (absentee ballots) that they'll have to count us all."
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