Industrial metals prices will struggle to rescale the heights during the next four months, but tight supply will keep markets bubbling, analysts said on Tuesday.
Strong demand from China, which now consumes a fifth of world metals output, and fund investment in commodities that have outperformed more traditional asset classes have been instrumental in driving prices higher.
Against this, though, worries are mounting about the pace of world economic growth and future dollar direction.
"I think one can say with confidence that prices are going to remain historically high into next year, but are we going to get a second peak? I think it looks less likely than three months ago," said Societe Generale economist Stephen Briggs.
Martin Fewings, analyst with Mitsui Bussan, highlighted the macro-economic uncertainties.
"China is looking at imposing more (credit tightening) measures...and in an environment where interest rates are on the increase, and maybe the dollar as well, I think it is very difficult to get speculators actively back in the metals."
In exclusive comments to Reuters on Monday, China's central bank said it was considering further measures to rein in growth, but would take a hard look at August economic data before making any decisions.
Analysts said the risk/reward ratio for fund players in metals was now clearly less attractive than a year ago.
"To still buy metals and take on fresh positions a year into a bull market is high risk," Caylon analyst Maqsood Ahmed said.
Copper, which sets the pace for other base metals, peaked at an 8-3/4-year high at $3,055 a tonne in early March - up 126 percent from its 2001 low.
It has since moved around in a $3,000-2,477 range and was quoted at $2,717 on Tuesday.
Other metals have followed a similar pattern, with aluminium backing away from an 8-3/4 year high and with nickel and tin off 15-year peaks.
"I wouldn't necessarily see a huge spike in prices in the fourth quarter. I think there is a marked reluctance to take aggressive short positions and push the market lower, but on the other hand I think upward momentum has pretty much failed," said John Kemp, economist with Sempra Metals.
Most metals will remain in deficit for some time to come, analysts said.
But the fourth quarter should mark a transition as increased output in response to higher prices begins to alleviate tight supply.
Barclays Capital, one of the most bullish on base metals, rejected the idea prices had peaked. "Base metals prices are showing strong resilience, supported by low inventories and limited availability," analyst Ingrid Sternby said in the bank's latest quarterly commodity report.
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