German export growth, the one bright spot of the nation's economy, should slow next year as global demand wanes and the euro gains against the dollar, the BGA wholesale and foreign trade association forecast on Thursday.
"There are clear signs pointing to a certain slowdown in global growth next year," BGA head Anton Boerner said. "The causes are especially the rise in energy and commodity prices. On top of that are foreseeable measures in the United States and China to slow growth."
The BGA forecast German exports would grow 7.0 percent in 2005 to 776 billion euros, compared with growth this year of around 9.5 percent. It expects imports next year to rise 6.5 percent to 604 billion euros, the same pace as this year.
"Whereas foreign trade is booming, the domestic economy remains Europe's laggard ... We see no signs of a pick up in construction and consumer demand," Boerner said.
In a statement, the BGA said it expected economic German growth in 2005 to slow to "at most" 1.5 percent from 1.8 percent in 2004, assuming oil prices eased to $40 a barrel.
But Boerner told a news conference he actually expected 2005 growth to slow to 1.25 percent with oil prices remaining over $40. Brent crude was trading on Thursday at around $51 a barrel.
Boerner said the BGA expected the euro to rise slightly against the dollar, which would help to shield importers from rising commodity prices.
He expected the euro to be between $1.25 and $1.29 at the end of 2004. "For 2005, we see the euro well above $1.25 but also well below $1.35," he said.
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