European papers on Saturday said Osama bin Laden's latest appearance would likely influence the upcoming US presidential election, but were divided over which candidate would profit most from it.
"With two words, he could have swung it," wrote a commentator in the London Times. "But Osama bin Laden avoided giving George Bush a guaranteed four more years in the White House. He did not say: Vote Kerry."
"No one could have watched bin Ladens 18-minute rant, however, without suspecting that the Great Evildoer had a Kerry-Edwards '04 bumper sticker somewhere on his camel," said the article.
"His message was, after all, essentially the same as John Kerrys during the presidential debates: why didn't Bush act faster on September 11? And why did he invade Iraq instead of catching me? Somewhere behind that beard there was the hint of a diabolical smirk."
The Daily Telegraph said Bush supporters were confident the video, the first taped appearance by the al Qaeda leader in 13 months, would be widely seen as an attempt to blackmail the nation. "The instincts of the heartland are on Mr Bush's side," it said.The Guardian meanwhile alluded to what has been dubbed an "October surprise" - rumours that there would either be an attack or bin Laden would be captured just prior to the elections, thus benefiting the incumbent. "US security forces anticipated bin Laden's al Qaeda would try to intervene in the presidential election but expected that action to take the shape of a bomb blast or some other terrorist outrage rather than last night's (Friday's) video.
"The initial instinct is that it will be more helpful to George Bush that to John Kerry." The French newspaper Liberation said the direct intrusion by enemy number one of the United States four days from the election occurred just as the candidates were neck and neck.
Since the struggle against terrorism and the war in Iraq had dominated the hard-fought and often vicious campaign, "any new event can change the dynamics of the race for the White House." Germany's Sueddeutsche Zeitung believed Kerry could just about swing it in the swing states "because many undecided voters doubt whether Bush has made America a safer place or put the country on the right track, as he promised."
Papers in Italy split largely down the middle on the bin Laden effect. "Osama has reappeared to campaign for Kerry," said Il Giornale, the newspaper of Prime Minister Silvio Berlusconi, an ardent Bush supporter.
But the Rome daily Il Messagero said the intervention would help Bush, while la Repubblica, backing Italy's opposition, said the third man in the contest between Bush and Kerry "has reappeared triumphantly to pour terror on the election," leaving the 110 million expected to vote Tuesday wondering whom to support.
A leading Swedish daily, Expressen, said the videotape would most likely help Bush, since "the tape with bin Laden reminds people now of what happened on September 11, 2001, and that the threat still is very real".
"Who knows, maybe bin Laden wants Bush to be re-elected. Iraq is after all on its way to becoming what Afghanistan was in the 1980s: ripe recruiting grounds for tomorrow's terrorists," the paper wrote. Two leading Dutch dailies gave their support to Kerry.
The progressive Christian newspaper Trouw said Bush's policy had caused "deep wounds and created new problems."
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