Panamax dry bulk rates strengthened on Tuesday, and shipping sources said the market was likely to remain firm for the rest of the year due to China's return to the market and seasonal factors.
Modern panamax rates for the benchmark US Gulf to Japan route have risen to $65-$66 per tonne.
This is up from a week earlier, when rates hit $60 for the first time since early May on expectations of strong demand towards the year end.
The rise was attributed in part to tight supplies of capsize vessels, due to demand for minerals from China and Japan.
This has led to moves to split and ship these cargoes using panamax vessels, Asian brokers said.
A panamax-class vessel carries 55,000 tonnes of dry bulk commodities, while a capsize vessel carries more than 100,000 tonnes and is predominantly used to carry iron ore and coal.
China's return to the market has revived memories of a sharp rise in freight rates to a record $75-$80 in February, fuelled by the country's voracious appetite for grains and minerals.
Freight rates tumbled to below $40 by June on the view that Chinese demand was fading.
Many Asian brokers, however, do not anticipate a repeat of the bull run that began late last year.
"Last year we were caught with our guard down. Nobody was prepared for what happened," said an official with a leading Japanese shipping firm.
"But, I think we've all learned a lesson from what happened last year," he said.
Shippers had taken steps such as chartering ships for a longer period to protect themselves from market fluctuations.
Brokers said this year's wild card was the soaring price of crude oil. The price of US light crude hit a record $55.67 per barrel on Monday.
They added, however, that the cost of bunker fuel did not account for a large portion of freight rates.
A Japanese broker said: "It is typical for the market to rise from late October (to mid-December) due to shipments of new crops and what is called harvest pressure ... but I really doubt we will see the sort of panic we saw in last year's market."
There aren't that many people who are short in the market, he said.
A sharply higher US crop forecast for this year by the US Department of Agriculture (USDA) has lent strength to the view that demand for vessels will remain strong.
In the period market, timecharter (TC) rates for the US Gulf-to-Japan route were assessed at $40,000 to $43,000 a day.
This compares with around $40,000, a week earlier.
For Europe to East Asia routes, rates also stood firm at $43,000 against $38,000 a week ago.
TC rates in the Pacific market were $40,000-$41,000 versus $38,000-$39,000 a week earlier.
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