US growth to slow in 2005 as rates rise: Blue Chip

Rising interest rates will crimp US consumer spending and housing next year, but a surge in business investment should keep economic growth on track, top forecasters said in a survey on Friday. Economists polled in the Blue Chip Economic Indicators newsletter projected the economic expansion would slow to 3.5 percent in 2005, down from this year's estimated 4.4 percent, as the Federal Reserve pushes up borrowing costs.
The 2004 and 2005 forecasts were unchanged from last month. However, growth was projected at a 3.7 percent annual rate in the fourth quarter this year, slowing from 3.9 percent in the third, but slightly better than the 3.6 percent fourth-quarter pace forecast last month.
The newsletter predicted Fed policy-makers will raise key overnight lending rates to 2.25 percent on December 14 - the fifth increase this year - and several times next year, taking the federal funds rate to 3.5 percent by the end of 2005.
Inflation was seen staying tame, Blue Chip said, though it nudged up its forecasts for increases in the Consumer Price Index to 2.7 percent in 2004 and 2.5 percent in 2005. Both estimates are up 0.1 percentage point from a month ago.
The higher cost of money will dampen consumer spending next year, but the impact will be mitigated by the expected creation of 185,000 jobs a month through 2005.
Blue Chip forecast the unemployment rate would fall to 5.2 percent by the second half of 2005. It came in at 5.4 percent in November.
"Somewhat faster jobs and wage growth, coupled with lower energy costs, should serve to keep consumer spending fairly decent but rising interest rates and the extremely low level to which the household savings rate has fallen argues against better-than-consensus gains in consumer spending," the newsletter said.
It forecast 3.2 percent growth in personal spending in 2005, slowing from 3.6 percent this year. Spending on durable goods will climb 4.3 percent from the fourth quarter of 2004 to the fourth quarter of 2005, leading the growth.
"While analysts believe growth in corporate profits will slow to 9.7 percent in 2005 from 15.0 percent this year, the fact that firms are currently flush with record levels of cash argues in favour of continued strength in business investment over coming quarters," the newsletter said.