The final official estimate of Russia's grain production in 2004 remains practically unchanged at 78.09 million tonnes, compared with 67.20 million tonnes in 2003. The numbers reveal that the increase in the 2004 total grain production have stemmed from a recovery in the 2004 winter grain output, while spring grain production remains nearly unchanged for the third year in a row.
This implies high dependence of Russia's total grain output volumes on winter grain production, particularly wheat.
Very good conditions for the winter grain development, especially for winter wheat in southern regions resulted in a recovery in the winter grain production in 2004, despite reduced area.
The Federal State Statistics Service (Rostat) said Russia's total winter grain output in 2004 was 30.8 million tonnes, compared with 20.1 million tonnes in 2003. Winter wheat accounted for 25.95 million tonnes, 11.2 million tonnes up from the previous year.
The 2004 winter grain production was well below 2002 output of 39.4 million tonnes, mostly because of a decline in the sown area.
In contrast to sharp fluctuations in winter grain production (from 39.4 million tonnes in 2002 to 20.1 million tonnes in 2003, and 30.8 million tonnes in 2004), total spring grain output remained practically the same: 47.2 million tonnes in 2002, 47.1 million tonnes in 2003, and 47.3 million in 2004.
This reflects relatively low, but rather stable yields of spring grains between 1.45-1.5 tonnes per hectare in years with normal weather conditions and low agricultural inputs.
At the same time, spring grain area expansion possibilities are very constrained due to growing shortage of agricultural machinery.
A fall in the winter grain output is unlikely to be cushioned by an increase in spring grain output. But a recovery in the winter grain production will keep total grain output at an average level even if spring grains are hit by a serious drought.
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