The Chicago Board of Trade soyabean market closed mixed on Thursday after this week's rally tied to prospects for a smaller US soyabean crop, traders said. Most of the week's strength came from worries about hot, dry weather moving into the US Midwest next week. But some forecasters were not aggressive in their extended outlooks on Thursday, which was making the bulls less aggressive.
"My sense is that the market is trading a forecast that has yet to be verified. I'm also not seeing the panic buying that one would normally see in crop-scare rally," said Anne Frick, oilseed analyst with Prudential Securities.
The weather models had conflicting extended forecasts on Thursday, Meteorlogix forecaster Joel Burgio said. The European model showed a stronger ridge developing over the western Midwest and central Plains during on Monday through on Wednesday than the US model.
However, both models predicted the ridge weakening from Wednesday through on Friday next week.
Meteorlogix weather service forecast highs in the upper 80s to low 90s degrees Fahrenheit for next week in the Midwest, with higher temperatures staying mainly in the Plain states.
July soyabeans closed 1-3/4 cents lower at $7.00-3/4 per bushel, with the deferred down 1/4 cent to up 3-3/4. New-crop November was 1/4 lower at $7.20-1/2 nearly a 20-cent premium to July the widest the spread has reached since last November, analysts said.
November remains underpinned by outlooks for a smaller than expected US crop. The potential for heat and dryness stressing the crop next week remains supportive.
There were also renewed worries about Asian soya rust moving into the heart of the US soyabean belt after Tropical Storm Arlene. Then, several traders expected at least 500,000 acreage cut as wet weather in the Dakotas and Minnesota prevented farmers from getting the last of their beans planted.
Those worries kept the CBOT soyabean market technically strong and created fresh buying interest by commodity funds. But cash markets were soft as demand for US soyabeans eased.
Importers turned to cheaper South American supplies. USA's export data released on Thursday showed US soya sales at 182,800 tonnes (old-crop only).
That was above the estimates for 50,000 to 150,000 tonnes, but far below levels seen in the year. Included in the weekly tally was a cancellation of 44,700 tonnes by China, the world's top bean buyer.
The South American soyabean market closed mixed with July up 1 at $6.95 per bushel.
Estimated volume was large at 180 futures. The soyameal market turned lower on a technical setback. Waning demand for US soyameal was bearish as end users switched to cheaper sources of high-protein feed from soyameal.
There was also speculation that cheap South American meal could spark US buyers too soon begin importing meal, traders said. July soyameal was down 90 cents at $223 per ton, with deferred down $1.80 to up $5.50.
USDA weekly soyameal export data was viewed market-neutral. The government said 53,700 tonnes of US soyameal were sold for export last week, which were within estimates for 40,000 to 80,000 tonnes.
CBOT soyaoil futures turned lower by the close, following the late weakness in soyabeans. There was some profit taking after on Wednesday's rally when soyaoil broke through all key-moving averages.
July was down 0.07 cent at 24.10 cents per lb., with the deferred down 0.15 to up 0.03.
Weekly export data was dismal. USA's export sales report on Thursday showed export sales of US soyaoil last week at a minus 100 tonnes. That was below estimates for 2,000 to 6,000 tonnes.
Malaysian palm oil futures closed higher overnight. Traders in Kuala Lumpur said palm followed rival CBOT soyaoil higher. Volume was heavy again on Thursday.
In soyabeans, an estimated 113,446 futures and 44,054 options traded. Estimated soyameal trade was pegged at 51,716 futures and 2,572 options. Soyaoil volume was seen at 44,114 futures and 6,202 options.
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