Australian grain: late rain sets up good winter crops

Australia is set for a strong wheat crop, as drought-breaking rains have arrived just in time for the winter grains sowing season, traders and analysts said. The wheat crop was now likely to come in at around 23 million tonnes for the growing year to end-March 2006, while the barley crop should be around 7 million tonnes, grains broker Paul Cochran of Fox Commodities said on Friday.
Australia's monopoly exporter AWB Ltd, which handles the world's second biggest wheat export crop after the United States, held its forecast at 21-23 million tonnes. Private forecaster Australian Wheat Forecasters said it was comfortable with a forecast of 23.5 million tonnes, well ahead of last season's 20.85 million.
The official forecaster, the government's Australian Bureau of Agricultural and Resource Economics, appeared out of line with a forecast of 16.02 million tonnes. The bureau slashed its forecast from 22.56 million tonnes on June 7 because of drought just days before late rain fell across Australia's prime eastern and southern wheat areas.
"They're going hammer and tongs at the moment," Cochran said, of grower planting activity. Central and southern Queensland were particularly busy. Further south, some growers would just be starting to plant and others would be waiting for next week, when more rain is forecast across most of the East Coast, he said.
But all Australian grains growers were now well set up for the next crop, he said. "Particularly if we get this next rainfall early next week it will be a sensational start in fact a start that we haven't had for a long time," Cochran said.
AWB spokesman Peter McBride said: "We've had exceptional rainfall over the East Coast in the last two weeks. There has been hectic planting across parts of the eastern wheat belt. "Basically all goes well for a good season as long as we get normal conditions going forward."
Brian Bailey, managing director of Australian Wheat Forecasters, said planting was complete in Western Australia and "going gangbusters" in many parts of the eastern and southern grains belt, with some areas waiting for paddocks to dry.
"It's looking pretty good," he said. The national barley crop was also looking good and heading for slightly over 7 million tonnes, Cochran said.