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"The weather has been very bad."
"Indeed."
"You can't fault the government for bad weather."
"Did I say I was going to lay the blame on the government for bad weather! However, the government is responsible for the people's welfare and a bad monsoon year means more social sector programmes to ensure that the impact of bad weather on the poor is minimal."
"Right!"
"Besides, it's not as if the government does not frequently have to deal with the vagaries of the Sub-continent weather. I mean we have had floods and then there is the drought and then there are the shacks of the poor particularly susceptible to a rainfall and quite a large percentage of Pakistanis still have no access to clean drinking water."
"OK. I get it. It's the government's responsibility to ensure that the people don't suffer unduly. But then bad weather has led to a concern that the cotton output targets would not be met."
"Oh no! That means that the growth target may not be met."
"Precisely. And with the growth rate lower due to lower domestic productivity it is going to herald harder times for the poor."
"Yep, inflation will rise."
"And the poor will become poorer."
"So is there a solution?"
"There is always a solution."
"What?"
"Tighten monetary policy..."
"The State Bank claims it is following a tight monetary policy..."
"Not true. A tight monetary policy envisages a decline in the money supply. All the State Bank is doing is decreasing the growth rate of the money supply."
"What about fiscal policy?"
"They should tax more and spend less."
"They don't mind taxing more but spend less? I know, what if they spend outside the country like on foreign tours, then it won't impact on inflation!"
"Don't be facetious."
"I wasn't being facetious, I was merely indicating that there are solutions like a tighter monetary and fiscal policy that the government has no intentions of taking on board."
"That's what all our governments have done. Displayed a single minded devotion to a policy that is just not working."

Copyright Business Recorder, 2005

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