I have returned to China after nearly two decades and find new China I have not known before. Round-the-clock brisk activity almost in every field suggests that it is on a path of rapid 'growth'. It is bracing up for World Olympics 2008 for which the countdown is well on its way in the Tian'anmen Square.
Efforts to give new look to rural China are also visible despite the farmers' resistance who want genuine development and not merely superficial new looks. They demand infrastructure to improve productivity, better standard of living, community civility, democratic management and clean and tidy looks of the countryside.
President Hu Jintao has just concluded his 12-day visit to five countries that took him to the USA, Saudi Arabia, Morocco, Nigeria and Kenya. In the USA he was accorded an official and not a State visit for which Chinese are bitter.
The Chinese President, however, unperturbed by Washington's cool response presented a six-point proposal to improve Sino-US relations. He assured George Bush that "China is committed to a peaceful development and will not attempt to alter the existing international configuration - a mistake many rising Powers made in the past."
The Americans, however, viewed the assurance skeptically. US strategic roadmap, called the Quadrennial Defence Review (QDR) says that "of the major and emerging Powers, China has the greatest potential to compete militarily with the United States. It warns that "absent US counter strategies and China's use of disruptive military technologies...could over time offset traditional US military advantages."
Washington is wary of China's power potential and realises that economic bankruptcy was mainly responsible for the break-up of the Soviet Union. China is not taking any risks in that regard. China's astronomical growth in month-by-month trade surpluses (in March 2006 it was $11.19 billion; up 98.5% on the previous month), coupled with rapid strides in defence technology are ringing alarm bells in Washington.
The Chinese huge trade surplus of $202 billion last year was offset by it by purchasing US Treasury instruments that helped America finance its trade and budget deficits. This gesture should have been appreciated by Washington.
China's trade surplus is genuine and not the result of coercion or improper competitive behaviour. It is partly due to prosperous economic growth of its major trading partners - USA, EU and Japan. USA improved its per capita income by 0.8% and reduced its expenditure by 0.6% in March 2006.
Such economic growths result in higher demand for imports and hence create further imbalances in trade. China, therefore, does not suffer from any sense of guilt. It is trying to increase its domestic consumption by improving its social security infrastructure, thereby allowing people to save less (present saving rate approximately 40%) for old age and spend more. Improvement in domestic consumption will reduce exports to some degree.
While USA is attempting to weave a net of alliances around China to isolate and contain it, the latter is concentrating on its economic "growth". It wants to "grow" and not "rise" as an economic Super Power or a military giant as perceived by the West. The word 'rise' has aggressive connotations and is, therefore, out of China's development strategy.
President Jintao also paid State visits to Saudi Arabia and three African countries and signed 28 agreements covering areas including politics, security, economy, trade, energy, education, health system, culture and tourism. Saudi Arabia and China agreed to set up a refinery in China and the latter agreed to invest in Saudi Arabia's infrastructure. President Hu Jintao also secured four oil-drilling licences from Nigeria.
China is evolving an energy conservation strategy and is planning to cut its per capita consumption of energy. It is closing down high energy consuming industries and is increasing its dependence on bio-energy (ethanol) and indigenous coal by refining it and making it smokeless and efficient. A special powder has been developed for this purpose.
China is thus enlarging its association of trading partners to include unexplored destinations in Africa and the Middle East. Chinese believe that prosperity breeds prosperity and prosperous trading partners are assets to each other. They bring more prosperity to each other.
China is conscious of the strategic alliances of the US and its allies against it and has correctly appreciated that strategic centre of gravity has shifted from the Atlantic to the Pacific. The US is feeling more threatened from China in the Asia-Pacific region and is, therefore, relocating its forces to ensure that no strategic imbalance occurs in this region that may be exploited by China.
The Indian Ocean is being left to the Navy of India. To thwart US long-term designs in the Pacific, China is also balancing its Pacific forces and planning for a strategic submarines fleet.
I am somewhat concerned about our general apathy towards China and undue preference for Europe and the USA. Pakistan's presence is not commensurate with the 'taller than Himalaya' relationship that we talk about. Pakistan is not visible in China. On the other hand India is visible in a big way. It has become China's strategic partner in development.
One of the topics for discussion in this year's Boao Forum was "India and China - strength in partnership". Some eminent entrepreneurs from all over Asia participated in this forum but regretfully Pakistan was represented by a small group of five industrialists out of whom only two were Pakistan based. One wonders how can we hope to assert our relevance in the global economic scenario while we continue to ignore high profile Asian platforms like Boao Forum?
THE FOLLOWING STEPS ARE RECOMMENDED:
a. Our major universities should seek affiliation with Chinese universities and increase students exchange programme.
b. Should introduce scholar exchange programme and should have permanent representation in China's think-tanks and research institutes.
c. Intensify people-to-people programme, more Pakistanis should be encouraged to visit and see the new face of China that offers comparatively cheap living, sightseeing and shopping facilities.
d. Should ensure effective participation of our entrepreneurs in China's business forums.
e. Should have more joint projects with China, particularly in the field of nuclear, bio and coal energy.
f. Launch aggressive see-Pakistan campaign in China suggesting attractive and safe destinations.
g. The number of PIA flights and number of destinations within China should be increased to facilitate easy and frequent travel. PIA fares to China should be reduced and brought at par with those of the China Airlines.
h. China has offered zero tariffs to some of its new trading partners. Pakistan should examine if this offer can be availed of by us.
i. Visa regime between the two countries should be further softened and entry to Hong Kong allowed on normal Chinese visa.
j. Pakistan should have its display centres at important trading and business centres in China.
k. President Musharraf must personally attend the next SCO moot and seek full membership. Likewise other conferences should also be attended at the highest appropriate level and full benefit derived from them.
China is destined to become a Super Power. This has been recognised by Washington as reflected in their last QDR. China's assurance that it has no interest in its 'rise' and is only intersected in its 'growth' is reassuring and must be accepted by the developing countries. Pakistan should seek China's strength in partnership. Our future lies here. This is a two-way process and we should work for and measure upto it.
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