Bangladesh's two main parties are drawing up battle plans and recruiting loyalists for elections now just half a year away, one eye on the mounting pressure from investors and donors for good governance.
Analysts and diplomats say that while the South Asian country is likely to see more violence and chaos in the run-up to next January's vote, the real test will be whether the new government is better able to fight Islamist militants and corruption.
The ruling Bangladesh Nationalist Party (BNP) of Prime Minister Begum Khaleda Zia and the main opposition Awami League of former Prime Minister Sheikh Hasina, are meeting people across the country to make a preliminary choice of election candidates. Business leaders, bureaucrats and retired army generals are among those lobbying the parties for tickets to enter the race.
"Long-time bona fide comrades often are elbowed out in the horse-trading ahead of every election, because of a bad culture of selling out nominations for funds," said A.K.M. Shahidullah, a teacher of political science at Dhaka University. "This culture has polluted our politics and given rise to bad governance."
The BNP's leaders are meeting officials from its three coalition partners, including the fundamentalist Jamaat-i-Islami, to boost mutual trust and confidence.
Khaleda's son, Tareq Rahman, the BNP's senior joint secretary-general, recently went so far as to declare at a Jamaat meeting in Dhaka: "We are members of the same family".
That stunned even BNP insiders, who bear a grudge against Jamaat for opposing the 1971 independence war against Pakistan. Further reassuring her allies, Khaleda said: "We must maintain a rock-like unity to overpower our adversaries in the election".
The widow of slain former president Ziaur Rahman, Khaleda led the four-party alliance to the 2001 election, which it won with a more than two-thirds majority.
Her arch rival, Hasina, daughter of independence leader Sheikh Mujibur Rahman, has crafted a 14-party alliance with 13 left secular parties, which have no representation in parliament.
Now, Hasina says, she is looking for more partners to form a "grand alliance" before the polls, and hopes a planned siege of the capital next Sunday will attract support from previously non-affiliated groups.
Both BNP and Awami are looking to former army strongman Hossain Mohammad Ershad, now chief of the centre-right Jatiya Party, to align with them. Ershad has yet to commit himself.
"both BNP and the Awamis feel they won't be able to muster a majority of votes to win power without alliances with other parties, even of different ideologies," said Professor M. Ataur Rahman, president of Bangladesh Political Science Association.
Beyond the uncertainty over the political line-up there is a question mark over January's polls themselves: Hasina has threatened an opposition boycott if her proposals for electoral reforms are not accepted. UN agencies and donors, including the European Union, have said that the election will only be credible if all major political groups participate. They have urged the two rival parties to resolve their disputes and hold the vote in peace.
Both Mujib and Zia, another independence war hero, were killed in military uprisings in 1975 and 1981, respectively - opening the way into politics for their heirs.
The two women jointly led a people's revolt in 1990 to oust general-turned-president Ershad after nearly nine years in power. Since then, they have been foes, ruling Bangladesh for a total of 15 years, with Khaleda winning two five-year terms and Hasina one. "Though the BNP has compromised with anti-liberation forces (Jamaat), the two major parties have many ideological similarities," said political analyst Abul Momen.
"They both are nationalists, vocal against religious and political extremism and pursue open market economy," he said. "But personal enmities between their leaders have kept the nation divided."
Impoverished Bangladesh now faces continuing public anger over shortages of utilities, rising commodity prices and, more lately, violence rocking the garment industry, the nation's prime foreign exchange earner. Analysts said all these would have an impact on the election.
Diplomats said the world would be watching next year's election more closely against the backdrop of an Islamist militancy that has killed at least 30 people and wounded 150. "The world wants to see a credible election in Bangladesh," US Ambassador Patricia A. Butenis said last week.
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