Unless Pakistan and India work harder to advance the normalisation process, resumption of conflict between these nuclear-armed neighbours is possible, says International Crisis Group (ICG).
In its latest update briefing "India, Pakistan and Kashmir: Stabilising a Cold Peace" the Brussels-based think tank said the former princely state remains a "potential flashpoint" and it would be a mistake to believe that the present trend to improve relations between the two South Asian states is irreversible.
"Although the cease fire in Kashmir is holding, the normalisation process between India and Pakistan is reversible. Unless the two-nuclear-armed powers work harder at advancing it, a resumption of conflict is still possible", it said.
"The international community, particularly the US, cannot allow itself to be lulled into believing Kashmir is secure", says Samina Ahmed, ICG's South Asia Project Director. "The talks continue, but there has been no major breakthrough, and all the fundamental differences remain".
One of the greatest hurdles to sustaining the process is an "asymmetry of perceptions and expectations", as Indian policymakers want to move slowly in the hope that an improved bilateral environment will help create conditions for negotiating the most contentious issues, including Kashmir.
Pakistan's government has made expansion of ties on other, equally vital areas of bilateral co-operation, such as trade, conditional on demonstrated progress on Kashmir, the briefing said.
Noting that relative decline in violence has helped stabilise the economy, and tourism is again flourishing in the valley the ICG briefing said "Human rights violations are inevitable as long as there is a heavy presence of security forces" in the Indian occupied Kashmir.
ICG says, "Pakistan must end support for militancy in Kashmir". Both sides would save the lives of their soldiers by agreeing to resolve the dispute over the Siachen Glacier, and India should reduce its heavy security presence in Kashmir in order to remove a major source of Kashmiri disaffection.
Above all, the two neighbours need to end the cycle of mutual recriminations and prove to Kashmiris that they value their welfare over narrow interests. In the end, however, it will take many more years of talks the participation and support of elected governments in both countries before the dialogue process can realistically be expected to yield a Kashmir solution.
"With international support, and by sustaining the dialogue process, India and Pakistan will, over time, build the necessary goodwill to tackle the most complex and contentious issues that divide them, including Kashmir", says Robert Templer, Crisis Group's Asia Program Director.
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