Crop scouts are expected to see that scorching temperatures and dry conditions in the northern US Plains severely cut into spring wheat yields during a tour of the main production area next week, analysts said.
"I think the big issue is the hot, dry weather," said Ben Handcock of the Wheat Quality Council, which runs the annual tour that covers North Dakota and also touches on some areas of South Dakota and Minnesota.
About 27 percent of the contiguous United States was suffering from severe to extreme drought conditions as of the end of June, according to the National Climatic Data Center. The Plains states have been particularly hard hit by the drought.
The US spring wheat crop was rated 34 percent good to excellent earlier this week, down from 42 percent the previous week and well below last year's 75 percent, the US Agriculture Department said.
Prized by millers for its superior quality and high protein content, spring wheat is milled into bread flour or blended with lower-protein wheat. North Dakota is by far the largest US spring wheat state, producing 224.4 million bushels in 2005, or 44 percent of the US crop.
The most recent USDA projections pegged US production of hard red spring wheat at 425.1 million bushels, down 9 percent from the 466.6 million bushels produced in 2005.
The USDA projected this year's crop of durum wheat, which is used to make pasta, at 60.4 million bushels, down 40 percent from last year and the smallest crop since 1988.
In some areas, late-arriving rains could still benefit the crop and boost yields in the north, Handcock said.
But in the southern part of the region, even rains will not help the crop.
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