Record large US soya stocks seen growing

A record large stockpile of soyabeans in the United States is expected to get bigger, with weather largely favouring the crop during its crucial development stage in August, analysts said.
The expected increase will come despite stiff competition for the United States' share of global export business from surging soya output in South America, led by key producers Brazil and Argentina, the analysts said.
An average of analysts' estimates pegged the 2006 US soyabean crop at 3.028 billion bushels, the third largest ever and they forecast the amount of soya in the United States at the end of August at a record large 533 million. And, by the end of August 21, 2007 - the end of the marketing year - the soya stockpile could escalate to a huge new record of 572 million bushels, the analysts said.
The US Department of Agriculture will release at 8:30 am EDT (1230 GMT) on Friday its August crop production and supply/demand reports and the analysts see no reason to argue against an escalation of soya stocks in spite of pockets of heat and dryness this summer in the US heartland.
"Late July and August weather is turning out better than people thought, so now we have a fear production could go up again so you have a burdensome old crop supply and a bigger production estimate," said Don Roose, analyst and president of US Commodities, Des Moines, Iowa.
The 2006/07 US soyabean crop is into its weather-sensitive pod-setting stage of development making weather patterns in August that is central to the final output of the crop. "It's a tough call on the beans, just because of how early it is. If we keep getting weather we've had the last two weeks, we're going to be looking at a larger production number," said Randy Mittelstaedt, analyst for Chicago trade house R.J. O'Brien.
Hot weather in July had been causing some nervous posturing in the volatile Chicago Board of Trade soyabean futures market. Surging soya output in South America kept usage of US soya fairly stable at a time when producers turned out huge soya production three years in a row, including the behemoth 3.1 billion bushels in 2004.