Australian wheat, sorghum hit by dry spell

Continued dry weather in Australia's cropping belt is crimping tonnages of the winter wheat crop and raising doubts over prospects for summer sorghum as the early planting season begins.
Grains broker Farmarco on Friday said it expected the wheat crop to plummet almost 30 percent to 17.7 million tonnes, from last year's 25.1 million tonnes. At this level, Australia would be producing a comparatively small crop for the seasonal year to March 31, 2007, given the average wheat crop over the last five years was 21.1 million tonnes. "The Australian wheat crop has a long, long way to go," Farmarco grains broker Rob Imray said.
Farmarco's estimate of the wheat crop is less than that of national wheat exporter AWB Ltd, which a month ago cut its forecast by about 20 percent to between 18 million and 20 million tonnes because of the dry spell.
With the sparse rainfall, the official forecast of 22.8 million tonnes by the government's Australian Bureau of Agricultural and Resource Economics may be in for a cut in the next forecast, due on September 19.
The 17.7-million-tonne figure was not pessimistic, Imray said. "There's a bit of upside or a bit of downside in that number," he said. Rainfall was the key factor during the change of seasons from winter to spring, he said. "Just get some rain, really," he said. Sorghum prices are running at seasonal highs of between A$180 and A$185 ($137 to $141) a tonne as dry conditions continue to threaten the crop.
"It is a sideways pattern, but they are sitting on their highs," Imray said. "Whenever a bit of rain comes, they drift back off, then drift back up again." Sorghum's normal planting season runs from mid-September in south-western Queensland to mid-October, though planting can take place as late as January if necessary.
Persistent dry weather in Australia in the last five years has delayed planting of sorghum until November or early December on several occasions. Analysts said no estimates were available on how much of the crop might be slashed by the dry weather as it was too early in the planting season. However, the Australian Bureau of Agricultural and Resource Economics has forecast a sorghum crop of 2.3 million tonnes, above the five-year average of 1.9 million tonnes.