Next week's earnings may help European stock indexes recapture four-month highs, but concern about the scope of a US economic slowdown and its impact on 2007 corporate profits may continue to hold back sentiment.
Utilities Gaz de France and Veolia, retailers Casino Guichard and Kingfisher, media and defence group Lagardere and Telecom Italia are among the top names lining up to post results.
Good news on the micro-economic front would help bolster sentiment eroded by growth and interest rate worries, as investors fret that a deteriorating economic environment will affect corporate profits going forward.
"The number one problem that market will have to deal with now is corporate profit growth at the end of 2006 and in 2007," said Florent Brones, global strategist at BNP Paribas.
"We have no answer on this at this time so this is going to be the issue of the next few weeks, particularly as we head into the profit warning season. If the US economy has entered a period of pronounced slowdown, then profit growth expectations will be downgraded," Brones added.
US economic data on retail sales and business inventories on Thursday, and industrial production, consumer prices and consumer confidence on Friday, will be centre stage for investors keen for clues on the strength of the world's biggest economy and monetary policy.
The FTSEurofirst 300 index of top European shares was 0.3 percent higher at 1,354.8 points by midday on Friday, rebounding after data showing surging US labour costs pushed sparked a 2.5 percent sell-off in the past three days. The benchmark index remains 3.6 percent below a near five-year peak set in early May.
EARNINGS IN FOCUS Telecom Italia will kick off a busy reporting week with half-year results on Monday, followed by Gaz de France, Italian defence firm Finmeccanica and Italian bank Sanpaolo IMI on Tuesday, and Lagardere on Wednesday.
Casino Guichard, Kingfisher and insurer Old Mutual report on Thursday, the same day luxury goods maker Richemont issues a trading statement, while Veolia and Imperial Tobacco Group will update investors on Friday. Updates by Texas Instruments on Monday, Goldman Sachs on Tuesday and Bear Stearns on Thursday will be in focus for European technology and banking investors.
Earnings overall are expected to be good, but strategists differ when it comes to predicting whether profit growth will continue to remain strong in coming quarters.
Some such as BNP's Brones say slower economic growth, combined with high oil and metals prices, will eventually take its toll on corporate activity, while others such as Pierre-Yves Gauthier, head of strategy at Oddo, take a more bullish approach.
"Corporate activity is still very strong and the capacity to generate higher profit margins very substantial despite the high commodity prices. And valuations in some sectors, banks, oil or others, are still extremely compelling," he said.
"We are still in a market dichotomy, with good days driven by very good corporate results and bad days when macroeconomic issues take the upper hand," said Gauthier, who expects European equity markets to gain another 9 percent before year-end.
Also of note next week is the airline sector. Alitalia will publish results on Tuesday, while Lufthansa, and airport operators Fraport and BAA release their latest traffic numbers.
British defence firm BAE Systems, which this week announced its intention to sell its 20-percent stake in Airbus to the planemaker's parent EADS, for 2.75 billion euros, reports first-half earnings on Wednesday.
Comments
Comments are closed.