Vietnam, the world's second-largest rice exporter, estimated on Wednesday that stock held at the end of this year for loading in 2007 would be 40 percent lower than at the end of 2005 at 150,000 tonnes.
"It's certain that exporters' stock carried to next year is lower than 2005 and the stock held by farmers is also lower," Truing Thanh Phong, chairman of the Vietnam Food Association, told reporters on the sidelines of an international conference.
Vietnam has said it would curb loading in coming months. The association has asked rice exporters to sign deals only for shipment in March 2007 to avoid grain shortages.
"The third rice crop area has been reduced," Phong said, referring to a government policy to encourage farmers to avoid growing the small crop to avoid the rice grassy stunt virus. Pests have been spreading in parts of the Mekong delta rice basket, which supplies more than half of Vietnam's total rice output.
Bui Chi Bud, head of the Institute of Agricultural Sciences for Southern Vietnam, said farmers should avoid growing the third crop and unroll the infected plants to clean up fields before growing the next winter-spring crop, which has the highest yield.
There were no estimates on the year-end stock farmers in southern Vietnam were expected to be holding for next year. Vinafood 2, Vietnam's top rice exporter, will maintain 100,000 tonnes in stock as usual, an official of the state-run firm based in Ho Chi Minh City told Reuters.
Traders also said the existing stock had been dwindling. Phong said Vietnam had signed contracts to export nearly 4.9 million tonnes of rice. At least 4.11 million tonnes of rice were loaded in the first nine months of this year, with nearly half going to the Philippines, government figures show.
The government has yet to announce its rice export target for 2007. It caps the total grain shipments this year at 5 million tonnes, down from 5.2 million tonnes exported in 2005.
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