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Cotton futures closed mixed Tuesday as speculative sales were offset partly by trade buying but the market could track lower on technically inspired sales over the next few sessions, brokers said.
The New York Board of Trade's December cotton contract shed 0.08 cent to settle at 49.28 cents per lb, trading from 48.81 to 49.36 cents. March rose 0.19 to 53.09 cents. The rest ranged from 0.13 cent up to 0.15 cent easier.
"We're going to (eventually) test the lows and see if we could break it," said Frank Weathersby, an analyst for brokers Affinity Trading in Fort Walton Beach, Florida. He was alluding to the double bottom in the December contract at 48.07 and 48.08 cents the market had hit before staging its modest rally.
The weak tone of the market "was amplified by end-of-the-month" liquidation engaged in by some commodity funds with positions in cotton who were cleaning up their holdings, he added. Fundamentally, cotton has struggled from bearish fundamentals especially after the US Agriculture Department's monthly supply/demand report raised global production while trimming world cotton consumption.
USDA also upped its forecast of top consumer China's production to 29 million (480-lb) bales, up 1.0 million from the preceding month's estimate. Cotton futures slipped at the start of business as steady selling from speculative funds depressed the market down to its lows before some covering by the same speculators hoisted cotton up, dealers said.
"You have very good trade buying but the path of least resistance for the specs is down at this time," one explained. Broker Flanagan Trading Corp sees resistance in the December contract at 49.30 and 50 cents, with support at 48.75 and 48.05 cents. Floor sources said final volume hit around 27,000 lots, from the previous tally of 21,134 lots. Open interest in the cotton market rose 1,875 lots to 185,005 lots as of October 30.

Copyright Reuters, 2006

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