Wal-Mart dented optimism for the holiday retailing outlook last week with its cautious overview of November's sales, but investors should bank on hearing a different story from other chains.
There's no arguing that Wal-Mart Stores Inc, as the world's largest retailer, bears some listening to when it says sales are not as hot as it had hoped.
Nevertheless, a growing consensus on Wall Street has taken the view that Wal-Mart is no longer a bellwether for the health of the retail sector or the US consumer. After all, sales from stores open at least a year have grown at no better than a low single-digit rate for years and its stock has managed to outperform its retail rivals in just one of the past five years - and that was in a down year.
"We don't think Wal-Mart is an indication that everybody is performing in a similar manner," said Joseph Feldman, managing director and hardlines retail analyst at Telsey Advisory Group, in New York. "Over the past few months, we've seen Wal-Mart become less and less of an indicator" of the overall state of US retailing performance.
So, when publicly traded chain stores deliver their first commentaries on the holiday season come Thursday morning, investors could well find their optimism restored even as Wal-Mart could report its first monthly same-store sales drop in more than a decade.
Rivals in the discount space such as Kohl's Corp and Target Corp, for instance, are forecast to report November's comparable-store sales rose by more than 5 percent, according to a Reuters poll. J.C. Penney Co Inc has already signalled a faster-than-expected start to the holiday season.
So with its rivals, including mid-priced department store operator Kohl's, now doing a better job at merchandising and pricing, analysts said it had only been a matter of time before Wal-Mart began to feel a sales pinch.
"A little earthquake took place over the last couple of years," said Richard Hastings, vice president and senior retail sector analyst at Smyth-Bernard Sands in Charlotte, North Carolina.
"While everyone was sleeping, the department stores came back. Kohl's and J.C. Penney have taken a lot of middle-income shoppers away from the discount stores. Especially Kohl's has hurt Wal-Mart. They are very promotional and they've done a great job at luring shoppers away from Wal-Mart and from Target."
Sure, Wal-Mart undeniably dwarfs every other retailer in absolute dollars, but analysts see the discounter as a barometer of just one segment of the economy, representing mainly the lower middle-income shoppers.
"Fortunately for the US economy, Wal-Mart is no longer the leader it once was in terms of same-store sales' performance," analysts at credit rating agency Moody's Investors Service wrote in their Global Credit Trends report.
"Despite Wal-Mart's downward pull, November's total same- store sales still might post a gain of 2.5 percent to 3.0 percent," they added.
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