Sectarian cleansing in Iraq has sparked large scale displacement of people inside the country and accelerated Iraq's economic and social decline, the head of a leading UN supported aid body said on Tuesday.
Rafiq Tschannen, chief of mission for the Geneva-based IOM (International Organisation for Migration) said demographic changes from sectarian-driven population transfers in the last year dimmed prospects for an early return of over 1.5 million internally displaced Iraqis.
"The internal displacement of tens of thousands of Iraqis in the last two years and the exodus of Iraqis outside has speeded up the decline of Iraq, which was once among the most advanced countries in the region. It is now a shadow of its former self," Tschannen told Reuters.
Out of Iraq's 26 million population, some 1.8 million are uprooted within its borders, including an estimated 640,000 in the past year alone, according to the latest UN figures.
A total of 2 million Iraqis have fled to nearby countries or beyond over the years. Besides neighbouring Jordan and Syria, other regional hosts include Egypt, Lebanon, Turkey and Iran.
Fearful of sectarian reprisals that have killed thousands, families from the Shia Muslim majority and the Sunni minority in Baghdad are quietly moving from their homes in mixed areas to relocate in religiously homogenous districts within the capital in a pattern that is consolidating a defacto division.
But Tschannen said the population transfers since the surge in sectarian fighting after the bombing of a major Shia shrine last year has only helped insurgents and militias to escalate their conflict to unprecedented levels.
"After a lot of movements have taken place we thought things will quieten down but unfortunately we forgot one aspect. ... The areas that are now homogenous are easier to attack because you cannot miss," Tschannen said.
"It is now possible to attack each other, unfortunately in a more direct way," said the official at one of the leading NGO groups dealing with the internally displaced in Iraq, many of whom are living in public buildings, camps or host communities.
"So people, even when they thought they were now safe, actually found out that it is more dangerous than before and those who have not decided to leave have come to the conclusion that it's better to leave," he said.
Tschannen, whose IOM figures show around 50,000 Iraqis flee their homes every month, predicted the plight of the internally displaced could only get worse.
"Inside the country we only see the problem increasing insted of decreasing. In Baghdad some neighbourhoods have been divided but some are still mixed, which may by the end of the year be claimed by one faction or the other," he said.
"The whole country is traumatised. There is not a single family that is not worried on a daily basis that their family member will come back in evening," Tschannen said.
The IOM's 2006 report indicated most of the internally displaced last year were Shias heading to safer regions in the south, with many Sunnis with fewer choices in the violence-torn capital opting to leave the country.
An acute shortage of funding has hampered efforts to integrate many of the displaced into new homes through job creation and shelter schemes, Tschannen said.
"Our challenge is to assist them to integrate where they are. ... Unfortunately our own funding is a great limitation. But he said there were signs of a shift in donor perspective as the extent of the crisis appeared beyond the Iraqi authorities' ability to handle.
"Last year the donors started to withdraw from Iraq, saying it now should be the time for Iraq to look after its own affairs, but now they have started to realise the humanitarian catastrophe is so large that the donors are still needed."
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