The yen gained against the dollar and euro on Tuesday as jitters about the US mortgage market and caution ahead of key US retail sales data prompted investors to trim exposure to high-yielding currencies.
Concerns about a rising number of defaults in the US subprime mortgage sector and their potential impact on the broader economy has triggered buying of low-yielding currencies such as the yen and the Swiss franc from Monday.
A weak reading from US retail sales figures at 1230 GMT could prompt further moves out of relatively risky carry trades, where investors borrow low-yielding currencies to buy higher return assets.
"Risk aversion and nervousness will persist. If the sales figures are weak it would be an argument for a move out of the carry trade," said Michael Klawitter, currency strategist at Dresdner Kleinwort in Frankfurt.
However he added increased risk aversion would necessarily be dollar-negative as "it could lead US investors to repatriate funds from higher-risk emerging markets". By 1112 GMT the dollar was down 0.6 percent at 116.98 yen, with its fall gaining momentum after the breach of key stop loss levels around the 117.20 yen mark.
The euro was down 0.7 percent at 154.14 yen, moving further away from February's record high near 160. It was down 0.1 percent versus the dollar at $1.3175, trimming earlier losses after an unexpectedly strong ZEW business confidence survey, which came in at 5.8 in March, above the consensus forecast of 3.3. The survey could herald a faster than expected rise in interest rates from their current level of 3.75 percent in the euro zone.
Concerns about the subprime mortgage industry, which lends to borrowers with poor credit histories at high interest rates, have dampened investor appetite for risk. Default rates in the riskiest segment of the US lending market have risen in recent months, pushing companies such as New Century Financial, the largest independent US subprime mortgage lender, close to bankruptcy.
Investors are anxious to see how falling prices and slower sales in the housing market may affect the overall economy, as US consumption has been driven by a housing boom.
"Many market participants remain wary of more bad news as a number of financial institutions report results this week," UBS said in a research note. "The market also clearly remains sensitive to negative economic developments on both the housing and the consumer front. In that regard, today's retail sales data ... could prove an important number," UBS added.
Comments
Comments are closed.