Russia's wheat exports in February recovered to 0.59 million tonnes from 0.53 million tonnes in January. Barley shipments increased to a seasonal high of 0.23 million tonnes from a mere 0.05 million tonnes in January. SovEcon expects monthly wheat exports this spring to remain steady, while barley shipments are likely to decline.
In February, Russian wheat exports to Egypt, which accounted for nearly half of the country's shipments in January, dropped to 80,400 tonnes. This reflected reduced demand from private Egyptian traders, which stockpiled nearly 0.6 million tonnes in December-January. However, active sales at recent tenders to the General Authority for Supply Commodities (GASC), which is the major wheat buyer in Egypt, reduced the stocks and are likely to encourage demand for Russian wheat.
This is likely to support Russia's wheat exports in March and April, despite the completion of wheat deliveries to India, which was the major buyer of Russian wheat in the first half of the season.
In addition, Russia's wheat exports remain competitive in nearby Mediterranean markets (Turkey, Israel, and Lebanon, Tunisia). But Russian shipments are losing competitiveness in countries west of Tunisia due to higher freight costs and firmer domestic prices. As a result, Russia's wheat shipments this spring are expected to be steady in the range of 0.45-0.65 million tonnes a month, slightly above year-ago volumes.
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