Iran's progress in enriching uranium has rendered unrealistic world powers' quest to prevent Tehran from gaining nuclear expertise, the UN atomic watchdog agency director said. Mohamed ElBaradei did not take issue with a UN Security Council demand that Iran suspend enrichment in exchange for a suspension of sanctions against it and talks on a solution that would allay suspicion Tehran is trying to build atom bombs.
"Quite clearly, suspension is a requirement by the Security Council, and I would hope the Iranians would listen to the world community," ElBaradei, head of the International Atomic Energy Agency, said in remarks published by the New York Times and confirmed by an IAEA official.
"But from a proliferation perspective, the fact of the matter is that one of the purposes of suspension keeping them from getting the knowledge has been overtaken by events," ElBaradei said.
Iran has ramped up its programme from the research level since the start of 2007, installing more than 1,600 enrichment centrifuges, divided into 10 fuel-cycle "cascades", or networks, in an underground complex by the start of May, diplomats said.
Tehran has been hooking up one cascade every week or so, they said, and intends to have 3,000 operational by next month to lay a foundation for "industrial-scale" enrichment. Speaking a week ahead of a International Atomic Energy Agency report on Iran to the Security Council, ElBaradei said it would be more sensible to cap Iranian enrichment short of industrial scale rather than try to freeze it altogether.
"Until all outstanding verification issues are clarified, and the agency is able to verify the peaceful nature of Iran's nuclear programme, the focus should be to stop them from going to industrial scale production, to allow us to do a full court press inspection and to be sure they remain inside the (nuclear Non-Proliferation) treaty," ElBaradei said.
Citing national pride and a sovereign right to nuclear energy for economic development, Iran has ruled out a nuclear halt before, during or even as an outcome of negotiations. It insists the enrichment programme is only to yield electricity.
"We believe they pretty much have the knowledge about how to enrich. From now on, it is simply a question of perfecting that knowledge. People will not like to hear it, but that's a fact," ElBaradei said.
"The key message he is trying to get across to the world is that as long as this stand-off, this confrontation goes on, and Iran is not suspending, they will continue to develop their industrial capability," said one diplomat close to the IAEA.
If the pending IAEA report certifies, as widely anticipated, that Iran has ignored a May 23 deadline set by the Security Council to suspend enrichment, it will face a third, broader and harsher round of UN sanctions. Three-thousand centrifuges would be enough to refine uranium fuel for a bomb within a year should Iran want to do so.
The New York Times quoted IAEA officials on Monday as saying the agency had concluded Iran is starting to enrich uranium in much larger dimensions after solving technical glitches that dogged its research-scale programme.
But this did not mean Iran had attained industrial capacity, said Mark Fitzpatrick, non-proliferation analyst at the International Institute for Strategic Studies in London.
"(It is not clear yet) whether the centrifuges are operating at normal speed, whether the cascades are linked together and whether they are working continuously. Until then, they cannot be said to have mastered the technology..., (although) at some point this year or next, Iran likely will reach that breakthrough," he told Reuters.
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