As many as 32 percent of the voters picked Benazir Bhutto as the best leader to handle the problems facing Pakistan, according to the Washington-based International Republican Institute (IRI) survey available here on Wednesday.
When voters were asked if they thought General Pervez Musharraf should resign, 63 percent said yes. Comparison showed that as Musharraf's popularity has declined, Benazir Bhutto and to a lesser extent Nawaz Sharif have emerged as the greatest beneficiaries. IRI has released the first part of its four-part survey of Pakistan public opinion.
The poll, conducted between June 13 and July 3, 2007, is a comprehensive analysis of attitudes regarding the Pakistan political landscape with relevant charts and graphs. The randomly selected sample consists of 4,000 adult men and women from 256 rural and 144 urban locations from 60 districts in all four provinces of Pakistan. The margin of error for the national sample will not exceed + 1.58 percent in 19 out of 20 cases.
IRI has conducted surveys in Pakistan since 2002, including four national polls over the past 12 months. The goal of the programme is to both gauge public opinion and to use this information in IRI's work with Pakistan's political parties. A non-profit, non-partisan organisation, the IRI advances freedom and democracy world-wide by developing political parties, civic institutions, open elections, good governance, and the rule of law.
Following is the text of IRI survey IRI Index I: Issues & Ratings Issues and Attitudes:Previous IRI polls have revealed a slow increase in the dissatisfaction mid frustration of Pakistani voters in IRI's June/July 2007 poll, that trend has accelerated. Voters are increasingly pessimistic about the economy, their security, and the direction of the country; the government is bearing the brunt of their dissatisfaction.
A majority of voters now feel the country is headed in the wrong direction (33 percent right track; 59 percent wrong track). This represents a 10 percent drop in those responding that the country was headed in the right direction and a 15 percent increase in those responding that the country was heading in the wrong direction as compared to IRI's February 12-March 7 poll, when voters were evenly split.
A plurality of voters say that their personal economic situation has worsened in the past year (29 percent improved; 34 percent worsened; 34 percent same). Compared to the last poll, this represents a four-point drop in the number saying improved and an increase by the same amount in the number saying it has worsened.
Pakistanis are increasingly pessimistic about their economic future. Thirty-four percent report that they feel the economy will get better over the next year (down 7 percent), while 18 percent feel it will get worse (up four percent) and another 18 percent feel that it will be about the same; 30 percent said that they did not know, reflecting a high degree of uncertainty.
Pakistani attitudes about the economy are of paramount importance as economic issues continue to be the single greatest concern of voters. When asked what one issue would determine which party they would vote for in the upcoming elections, the economy far out-paced any other issue.
TOP ISSUES: 51 percent responded inflation, 19 percent cited unemployment, and 13 percent said poverty. Voter pessimism about the economy was compounded by the current political unrest, which has dominated news coverage for the past several months.
Overwhelming majorities were opposed to President Pervez Musharraf's actions regarding the judiciary, including the initial suspension of the Chief Justice as well as the government's handling of the resulting unrest.
Seventy-two percent were opposed to Musharraf's suspension of Chief Justice Iftikhar M. Chaudhry. An even larger percentage (80 percent) stated that they wanted the Chief Justice to be reinstated. Voters were also strongly opposed to the government's attempts to restrict the media (61 percent opposed) as well as the possibility of a declaration of emergency (60 percent opposed).
As an indication of the extent to which Pakistanis opposed Musharraf's suspension of the Chief Justice, even Pakistan Muslim League (PML-Q)(the party most associated with Musharraf) voters were against the decision. Sixty percent said that they were opposed to the suspension and 69 percent said that he should be reinstated. PML-Q voters are also opposed to a declaration of an emergency (56 percent opposed) and were against attempts to restrict the media (50 percent opposed).
Voters also blame the government for the violence in Karachi surrounding the Chief Justice's visit to that city. Thirty-eight percent blamed the government for the violence and another 38 percent blamed ruling coalition partner Muttahida Quami Movement (MQM); only eight percent said that it was the fault of the opposition parties and four percent cited the Chief Justice; 90 percent said that there should be an investigation into the incident, and those responsible should be arrested, put on trial and punished; 43 percent said that they observed the general strike that was called to protest the incident, while 45 percent said that they did not.
Voters also reported that they felt less secure this year than they did last year- At the time of this poll, the stand-off between the government and Islamic militants barricaded inside the Lal Masjid, or Red Mosque, had not yet been resolved, and the vast majority of voters said that it concerned them. A majority also said that religious extremism was a serious problem in Pakistan.
Fifty-six percent reported feeling less secure this year than they did last year. Sixty-three percent said religious extremism is a serious problem. Seventy-one percent said they were concerned about Lal Masjid.
Of Lal Masjid activities that concerned voters the most, 32 percent said it was their Sharia court.
VOTER BACKLASH As mentioned previously, the government is bearing the brunt of this growing voter anger; 60 percent of voters feel that the government is not delivering goods. When asked if they felt that the ruling coalition was doing a good enough job to deserve re-election, 58 percent replied no. This represents a sharp increase from the February/March poll when 35 percent were against re-election, and it is the first time in IRI's polling that a majority replied no.
In addition to the government, President Musharraf is also personally bearing the brunt of voter anger. Although he receives decent marks for his Seven Points Agenda, voters are generally dissatisfied with his performance. For the first time in IRI's polls. Musharraf failed to get a majority approval rating.
Masharraf's job approval rating has dropped 20 points (34 percent approved; 49 percent disapproved). When asked if they approved or disapproved of the job he was doing, only 34 percent said they approved while 49 percent said that they disapproved. This 34 percent approval rating represents a drop of 20 percent from Musharraf's 54 percent approval rating in the February/March poll, and a drop of nearly 30 percent from the high of 63 percent be received in the September 5 -25, 2006 poll. Musharraf received the lowest marks in Punjab (31 percent approved; 50 percent disapproved).
Musharraf received lower marks in the Punjab, the most populous province, than he did in any other province. Musharraf did rate higher when voters were asked to evaluate his achievements on each item of the Seven Points Agenda he laid out for the country when he assumed power in 1999. On each point, more people rated his performance as good than did poor.
A majority of voters are opposed to Musharraf's re-election to another term as President (33 percent support; 64 percent opposed). In addition to impacting his approval rating, Pakistani dissatisfaction with Musharraf is also impacting support for his re-election as President. In the February/March poll, 50 percent supported Musharraf's re-election while 40 percent were opposed. - In the latest poll, re-election support dropped 17 points to 33 percent while opposition increased 24 points to 64 percent.
When voters were asked if they thought Musharraf should resign, 63 percent replied yes. As Musharraf has declined, Benazir Bhutto and to a lesser extent Nawaz Sharif have emerged as the greatest beneficiaries.
When asked who they thought could best lead the nation out of the current crisis, 42 percent said Bhutto while 30 percent said Musharraf. Voters chose Bhutto as the best President for Pakistan. When asked whom they would prefer as President, 39 percent said Bhutto and 30 percent said Musharraf.
When presented with the choice of Musharraf or Chief Justice lftikhar Chaudhry for the office of President, Musharraf beat the Chief Justice by a margin of 32 percent to 25 percent; however, 38 percent replied neither.
Thirty-two percent of voters picked Bhutto as the best leader to handle the problems facing Pakistan. In the February/March poll, despite the fact that his support was starting to decline, Musharraf still performed strongly when voters were asked what one leader they thought could best handle Pakistan's problems.
In the June/July poll, however, for the first time, Musharraf did not top the list. Benazir Bhutto emerged as voters' top choice with 32 percent (up seven points from 25 percent), Musharraf came in second with 27 percent (down five points 32 percent), and Nawaz Sharif rounded out the top three with 21 percent (up six points from 15 percent). Imran Khan (6 percent, Maulana Fazal-ur-Rehman (4 percent), Qazi Hussain (3 percent), and Altaf Hussain (2 percent) trailed behind the top three.
Nawaz Sharif edged out Musharraf in Punjab as the voters' choice for best leader. As mentioned above, Nawaz Sharif's popularity shows that he too is benefiting from Musharraf's decline, especially in the Punjab (Pakistan's most populous province) where he led Musharraf as the best leader 32 percent to 29 percent.
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Seven Point Agenda Good Poor Spread
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Ensuring swift across the board accountability 48% 41% +7%
Devolution of power to the grassroots level 50% 37% +13%
Depoliticizing state institutions 47% 42% +5%
Ensuring law and order and dispensing speedy justice 48% 44% +4%
Reviving the economy and restoring investor confidence 47% 40% +7%
Strengthening the federation 45% 42% 3+%
Rebuilding national confidence and morale 53% 35% +18%
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