Turkish Prime Minister Tayyip Erdogan faces tough choices this week on building a new government and nominating a candidate for president that risk reigniting tensions with the powerful secular elite.
Erdogan, whose Islamist-rooted AK Party swept back to power in parliamentary elections on July 22, received a mandate from President Ahmet Necdet Sezer on Monday to form a cabinet that analysts say must accelerate economic and political reforms.
He has 45 days in which to name his government and win a vote of confidence in parliament. Sezer, a secularist critic of Erdogan's party, must also approve the government list. Erdogan may submit his list to Sezer as early as this week, but his choice of ministers will hinge on whether Foreign Minister Abdullah Gul decides to defy the secular establishment, including the army generals, and run again for the presidency.
If Gul does run, Erdogan will need a new foreign minister. But if Erdogan drops Gul, it would anger many in the AK Party and hand a moral victory to its secularist opponents in parliament, the judiciary and the army just weeks after the pro-business party won nearly 50 percent of the votes in the election.
"Erdogan has a tough task. If he again nominates Gul, he risks fresh confrontation with the establishment. But giving up on Gul is also problematic," said Wolfango Piccoli, a Turkey expert at Eurasia Group, a political risk consultancy. The secularists object to Gul, an urbane diplomat, because of his Islamist past and his wife's Muslim headscarf.
Sezer's mandate expired in May but he has had to stay on as interim head of state after the secularists derailed Gul's first bid to become president in a parliamentary vote. That decision forced Erdogan to call the parliamentary election months early.
Erdogan gave little away on Monday about his plans. "Drawing on our experience of four years and eight months in government, we will hopefully form a stronger government that will overcome many shortcomings," he told reporters at Sezer's residence after receiving the mandate.
Erdogan said he would consult with opposition leaders on key issues, but added: "There is no rule that says we have to agree 100 percent on every matter." Turkey's powerful military, which just 10 years ago ousted an Islamist-oriented government in which Gul served, says the country's next president must be a convinced secularist.
The president in Turkey is commander in chief of the armed forces and also appoints many top judges and university rectors. The army fears that Gul as president would chip away at the secular nature of these institutions, a claim he rejects.
Nobody predicts a military coup in Turkey, though further stern warnings from the army are possible. One prominent lawyer has said Gul may face judicial probes into his role in the now-defunct Islamist Welfare Party ousted from power in 1997.
Angering the generals will also make it far more difficult for Erdogan to relax Turkey's ban on the headscarf in government offices and schools, a key demand of many AK Party supporters.
As well as a president and a new cabinet, Erdogan must pick a candidate for speaker of parliament, the second highest ranking post in Turkey's state hierarchy after the president. Parliament, which reconvened on Saturday, is scheduled to elect the speaker on Thursday. Some commentators have speculated that Gul could be offered this job instead if Erdogan decides to appease the army and proposes a compromise figure for president.
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